Chris Broussard· Jan 2, 2026
Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
“I'm gonna say two touchdown passes. K. No interceptions.”
said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 4 player season numbers and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 38.3 out of 100, against 28.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsJan 2, 2026
Cleveland Browns to win
“Browns over the Bengals. That's seven and a half points, I believe... So I see an upset coming”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CLE
- score:
- 20-18
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Lamar Jackson to record 2 passing tds
“I do expect him to play well. I'm gonna say two touchdown passes.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 53.72-56.95 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 27.32
- skill:
- -56.95
- what happened:
- 21
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 53.72
- predicted:
- 2
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- last season:
- 41
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Lamar Jackson to record 0 passing interceptions
“two touchdown passes. K. No interceptions.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 45.67-48.41 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 5.1
- skill:
- -48.41
- what happened:
- 7
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 45.67
- predicted:
- 0
- statistic:
- passing_interceptions
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- last season:
- 4
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- position average:
- 6.2
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Derrick Henry to record 100 rushing yards
“I think he's gonna have a better game rushing the ball, about the same amount of carries, over a 100 yards”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 44.19-46.84 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 1149.89
- skill:
- -46.84
- what happened:
- 1595
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 44.19
- predicted:
- 100
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- last season:
- 1921
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- position average:
- 378.78
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Myles Garrett to record 24 sacks
“I think he'll get two sacks at least. Yeah. I think he's gonna get two at least and break the record”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 0+97.17 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 9.03
- skill:
- 97.17
- what happened:
- 23
- player:
- Myles Garrett
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 24
- statistic:
- sacks
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- last season:
- 14
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- position average:
- 4.06
- zero at percent out:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.
- Paul KerenDepth Chart Calls · Teven JenkinsMiss · 0Keren says Teven Jenkins still projects as Cleveland's Week 1 starting right guard despite a push from KT Leveston, and that Carson Schwesinger and Quincy Williams will be the Browns' lead linebackers.
- Mason CameronDepth Chart Calls · Ethan PocicMiss · 0An unsigned PFF piece ranks the NFL's top 32 centers heading into the 2026 season, with Creed Humphrey first for the fourth straight year, and names Ethan Pocic and Austin Schlottmann as the favorites to win starting center jobs in Baltimore and Tennessee.
- Evan SilvaFantasy Defense Calls · Baltimore RavensClose · 58In his 2020 fantasy defense/special teams rankings, Silva puts the Steelers first, the 49ers second and the Ravens third, citing pass rush, favorable early schedules and game scripts.
- Jared DubinGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Dubin is high on the Ravens and low on the Colts, predicting a big Baltimore road win.
- Kirk HerbstreitGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Herbstreit made a full slate of Week 1 picks — Lions, Ravens, Bears, Bills, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Titans, Eagles, Packers and Cowboys — and also said he still thinks Seattle is the team to beat in the NFC West.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayer Season Numbers · Tyler ShoughMiss · 4Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.
- Daniel JeremiahPlayer Season Numbers · Jihaad CampbellMiss · 0Jeremiah walked through his mock draft 3.0, slotting Cam Ward first overall to Tennessee, Abdul Carter to Cleveland at two, Shedeur Sanders to the Giants at three and Travis Hunter to New England at four, plus roughly twenty other first-round pairings. He also called Matthew Golden the first receiver off the board, said Tyler Booker would climb back into the latter third of the first round, expected Kirk Cousins to be traded, thought Jaire Alexander's Packers days were numbered, and predicted Cam Robinson would start at left tackle in Houston.
- Joe MarinoPlayer Season Numbers · Kyle PittsClose · 67Marino argued Kyle Pitts deserves more respect after a good season and expects his touchdown total to keep rising, landing on six touchdowns next season (following the pattern of his yearly totals).
- Tim HasselbeckPlayer Season Numbers · Isaiah LikelyMiss · 0Hasselbeck expects Kyler Murray to be released by Arizona, believes Malik Willis will sign somewhere as the anointed opening-day starter, and thinks Isaiah Likely can be a true No. 1 tight end who would catch over 75 passes with close to seven touchdowns as a full-season starter.