Marcus Mosher· Dec 3, 2024
Mosher's Week 14 power rankings place Detroit first and Jacksonville last, and along the way he calls the Ravens and Broncos playoff-bound, the Seahawks heavy favorites in the NFC West, the Saints eliminated, and the Giants/Jaguars in contention for the No. 1 pick.
“Baltimore is a sure-fire playoff team, but it clearly isn't the same regular-season team we saw last year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Dec 4, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
6 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 division winner, 1 power ranking, 1 roster spot call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 82.3 out of 100, against 51.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Christian McCaffrey to make the roster
“They suffered another 20+ point loss and likely lost Christian McCaffrey (PCL) for the season.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- first week on the53:
- 1
- Division WinnersSeattle SeahawksDec 3, 2024
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
“And with the defense starting to come along, they should be the heavy favorites to take the division now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- no
- Power RankingsDec 3, 2024
“Here are our updated power rankings going into Week 14 of the 2024 season”
Hit · 98Scored 98.15a naive guess scored 67.38+39.39 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 39.39
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 98.15
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensDec 3, 2024
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“Baltimore is a sure-fire playoff team, but it clearly isn't the same regular-season team we saw last year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosDec 3, 2024
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“The Denver Broncos are a near-lock to make the postseason”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 128
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Team Draft Slot CallsJacksonville JaguarsDec 3, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars to pick at number 1
“That means Jacksonville could pick at No. 1 for the third time in five seasons.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 40.26+71.04 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 23 the year before
- skill:
- 71.04
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 40.26
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 5
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Jared DubinDepth Chart Calls · Daniel FaaleleMiss · 0Dubin grades the Faalele trade, predicting Faalele has a decent chance to be Jacksonville's Week 1 starting right guard in competition with Wyatt Milum, and that Evan Neal's odds of making the Giants' 53-man roster improved while Jon Runyan and Francis Mauigoa hold the Giants' starting guard jobs.
- John ShipleyDepth Chart Calls · Patrick MekariMiss · 0Shipley projects second-year cornerback Jabbar Muhammad to make the Jaguars' 53-man roster and describes him as the team's clear No. 5 cornerback, a role that would earn him a game-day jersey. He also identifies Patrick Mekari, Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland as projected Week 1 offensive line starters.
- Michael HanichDepth Chart Calls · Bud ClarkMiss · 0Hanich suggests Nick Emmanwori may miss Week 1 after ankle surgery, and that Noah Igbinoghene is making a strong case to be the Seahawks' Week 1 starting nickel, with Bud Clark also possibly stepping into a starting role if Emmanwori is out.
- Mason CameronDepth Chart Calls · Ethan PocicMiss · 0An unsigned PFF piece ranks the NFL's top 32 centers heading into the 2026 season, with Creed Humphrey first for the fourth straight year, and names Ethan Pocic and Austin Schlottmann as the favorites to win starting center jobs in Baltimore and Tennessee.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.