Justin Penik· Jan 15, 2025
Pennock ranks the eight remaining playoff quarterbacks by conference (Mahomes over Allen over Lamar in the AFC; Stafford, Goff, Daniels, Hurts in the NFC), names Lamar Jackson as MVP, and picks the Chiefs, Lions and Bills to win their divisional games — plus the Lions to beat the Eagles if they meet.
“I'm rooting for the Ravens, but I think I'm picking the Bills.”
said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 2 top player lists and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 37.6 out of 100, against 46 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsJan 15, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Eagles
“If it's Lions Eagles, knowing what you currently know... I think the Lions in Detroit respectfully destroy the Eagles.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 21.88+11.45 skillHow this was scored
- note:
- these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
- skill:
- 11.45
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- ceiling:
- 66.67
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 21.88
- opponent:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- 14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 7 won a game there
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- right opponent:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- picked won aplayoff game:
- no
- picked reached the playoffs:
- yes
- opponent reached the playoffs:
- yes
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 15, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
“But the Chiefs, I think, are going to control the game because that's what they do.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 14-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 15, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens
“I'm rooting for the Ravens, but I think I'm picking the Bills eight and oh at home.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 25-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 15, 2025
“automatically we're putting Mahomes, Allen and Lamar ahead of anybody in the NFC... I have Alan and Lamar, but it's very close, and I hate that. So you have you have that flipped.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -50
- placed:
- 2
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 3
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 2: 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 15, 2025
“So you just went through my one through four. Yeah, Stafford, goff Daniels Hurts.”
Miss · 30Scored 30a naive guess scored 50-20 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -20
- placed:
- 4
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 4
- accuracy:
- 30
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 4: 30
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore RavensJan 15, 2025
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“Lamar Jackson, I think is the m v P.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsJan 15, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Commanders
“this may just come down to Jimmy's and Joe's I think the Lions players are just flat out better offensively and defensively than the Commanders”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 45-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Jason La CanforaRoster Spot Calls · Tyler LoopMiss · 0La Canfora argues the Ravens have unresolved problems at left tackle, downfield receiver, center and kicker, and says that despite Tyler Loop's home struggles no kicker change will be made this week given the trip to Brazil and Jake Moody no longer being on the practice squad.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Mike EvansMiss · 0Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others.
- Tom StrachanTrade and Signing Calls · Mike EvansMiss · 0Tom Strachan offered his own 2026 free-agent landing spots, sending Aaron Rodgers to Arizona, Malik Willis to Pittsburgh, Alec Pierce to Seattle, Mike Evans to Baltimore, Deebo Samuel to Carolina, Kenneth Walker to Houston, Breece Hall to Washington, Kyle Pitts to Philadelphia and Dallas Goedert to Miami, while keeping Daniel Jones and Javonte Williams with their current teams.
- Jason La CanforaRoster Spot Calls · Gerad LichtenhanMiss · 0La Canfora predicts the Ravens will keep several young players on their practice squad — DL Kaimon Rucker, LB Dominic DeLuca, LB Ethan Burke, CB Amani Oruwariye, OT Gerad Lichtenhan and QB Joe Fagnano — and expects the team to make at least one trade from its surplus of cornerbacks.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Shannon SharpeGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0A CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Mitch GoldichGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Conor OrrGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Orr's Week 1 straight-up picks, including several upsets (Patriots, Buccaneers, Browns, Dolphins, Commanders, Broncos).