Marcus Mosher· Sep 17, 2024
Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams entering Week 3 of the 2024 season, with the Chiefs on top and the Panthers last, and mixes in forecasts: the Bills winning the AFC East, the Texans potentially reaching the AFC Championship, the Steelers starting 4-0 and winning the AFC North, the Saints and Buccaneers as playoff teams, the Cardinals as an NFC sleeper, and the Jaguars falling to 0-3.
“If Buffalo's defense continues to improve, there is no reason why they shouldn't win the AFC East again this year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 17, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
9 checkable claims — 2 division winners, 2 playoff picks, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 53.5 out of 100, against 95.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsHouston TexansSep 17, 2024
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
“The addition of Danielle Hunter could end up being why the Houston Texans make it to the AFC Championship this season.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -189
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersBuffalo BillsSep 17, 2024
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“If Buffalo's defense continues to improve, there is no reason why they shouldn't win the AFC East again this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersPittsburgh SteelersSep 17, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division
“And with the rest of the AFC North falling apart, this might just be their year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -189
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- won the division:
- no
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 17, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Power RankingsSep 17, 2024
“NFL Week 3 Power Rankings — 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Carolina Panthers”
Close · 74Scored 74.3a naive guess scored 67.38+13.09 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 13.09
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 74.3
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsSep 17, 2024
Buffalo Bills to win
“With the Bills up next, the Jaguars are looking at a possible 0-3 start.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 10-47
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Playoff PicksNew Orleans SaintsSep 17, 2024
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
“Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- skill:
- -189
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Season Win TotalsPittsburgh SteelersSep 17, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with ? wins
“With a pretty favorable schedule upcoming, Pittsburgh could easily start the season off with four straight wins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsArizona CardinalsSep 17, 2024
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“Arizona has one of the league's most fun offenses and could be a bit of a sleeper in the NFC this season.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Henry McKennaDepth Chart Calls · Carson BeckMiss · 0McKenna predicts Kyler Murray will win the Vikings' starting QB job over J.J. McCarthy, that Minnesota will make the playoffs if Murray cuts out the hero ball, that both QBs will play in 2026, and wonders whether rookie Carson Beck could unseat Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's Week 1 starter.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.