Marcus Mosher · Sep 17, 2024

Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams entering Week 3 of the 2024 season, with the Chiefs on top and the Panthers last, and mixes in forecasts: the Bills winning the AFC East, the Texans potentially reaching the AFC Championship, the Steelers starting 4-0 and winning the AFC North, the Saints and Buccaneers as playoff teams, the Cardinals as an NFC sleeper, and the Jaguars falling to 0-3.

“If Buffalo's defense continues to improve, there is no reason why they shouldn't win the AFC East again this year.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original →

9 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Playoff PicksSep 17, 2024
“Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
16
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Power RankingsSep 17, 2024
“NFL Week 3 Power Rankings — 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Carolina Panthers”
Scored 74.3a naive guess scored 67.38+13.09 skill
How this was scored
skill:
13.09
method:
spearman
season:
2024
accuracy:
74.3
baseline:
67.38
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
32
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome PicksSep 17, 2024
“With the Bills up next, the Jaguars are looking at a possible 0-3 start.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
10-47
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 17, 2024
“Don't look now, but the Buccaneers and the Saints both look like legitimate playoff teams this year.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skill
How this was scored
team:
NO
skill:
-189
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 17, 2024
“With a pretty favorable schedule upcoming, Pittsburgh could easily start the season off with four straight wins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Surprise Team CallsSep 17, 2024
“Arizona has one of the league's most fun offenses and could be a bit of a sleeper in the NFC this season.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Division WinnersSep 17, 2024
“And with the rest of the AFC North falling apart, this might just be their year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Conference ChampionsSep 17, 2024
“The addition of Danielle Hunter could end up being why the Houston Texans make it to the AFC Championship this season.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Division WinnersSep 17, 2024
“If Buffalo's defense continues to improve, there is no reason why they shouldn't win the AFC East again this year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?