Rich Eisen· Nov 3, 2025
Eisen insisted the Colts will still win the AFC South and beat Atlanta in Berlin, picked the Lions to win the NFC North and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl with wins over Washington, the Giants and Green Bay on Thanksgiving, agreed Stafford will be an MVP finalist, and named the Colts, Patriots, Broncos, Chargers and Bills as AFC playoff teams.
“I'm just going to say the Lions will still win the NFC North.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
14 checkable claims — 5 playoff picks, 4 game outcome picks, 2 division winners, 1 award pick, 1 conference champion and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
13 of 14 have settled so far, averaging 61.5 out of 100, against 46.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
14 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsDetroit LionsNov 3, 2025
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
“I also chose them to go to the Super Bowl and win the NFC”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsNov 3, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay
“Which means Detroit wins on Thanksgiving against Green Bay.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 31-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Division WinnersIndianapolis ColtsNov 3, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to win the division
“they're absolutely gonna win this division ... I still think they're the best team in the AFC South for sure.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersDetroit LionsNov 3, 2025
Detroit Lions to win the division
“I'm just going to say the Lions will still win the NFC North.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- won the division:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksIndianapolis ColtsNov 3, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to beat Falcons
“I think they win in Berlin. They're eight and two going into the buy”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 25-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsNov 3, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Washington
“And I think Detroit wins against Washington. They're six and three”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 44-22
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- WAS
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsNov 3, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Giants
“The Giants coming in ... That said they should win that.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 27-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Award PicksMatthew StaffordLos Angeles RamsNov 3, 2025
Matthew Stafford to win MVP finalist
“he's gonna be an MVP finalist. Oh, I I agree with you. ... Not an overreaction.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 156
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Playoff PicksIndianapolis ColtsNov 3, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs
“I think Colts, Patriots, Broncos make it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-156 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- IND
- skill:
- -156
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsNov 3, 2025
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“I think Colts, Patriots, Broncos make it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 156
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosNov 3, 2025
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“I think Colts, Patriots, Broncos make it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersNov 3, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“I think the Chargers make it, and I think the Bills make it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Playoff PicksBuffalo BillsNov 3, 2025
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“I think the Chargers make it, and I think the Bills make it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Surprise Team CallsCarolina PanthersNov 3, 2025
Carolina Panthers to beat expectations
“Although, I did say the Panthers were my sleeper team of the NFC”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0In the winners-only chips segment Parkins backed the Patriots over the Jaguars, the Bengals over the Steelers and the Ravens over the Cowboys in Brazil. He also said New England has a real shot at a top-10 defense and that Kayshon/Romeo Dobbs will be the Patriots' number one target.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0In his taped upset alert, the coach took the winless Chargers to beat the undefeated Bills, citing Los Angeles' desperation and Buffalo's leaky defense.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Houston TexansHit · 100Brockman predicted the AFC South will send at least two teams to the playoffs and called the Texans real contenders.