AJ Hawk· Dec 5, 2025
AJ made his week 14 NFL picks, taking the Jaguars, Bengals, Buccaneers, Steelers, Seahawks, Jets, Browns, Commanders, Broncos, Packers, Rams and Texans.
“I'm going back and forth on this one, but I like what Aaron Glenn's got going on. Give me the Jets plus three here.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
12 checkable claims — 12 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
11 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 54.5 out of 100, against 36.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersDec 5, 2025
Green Bay Packers to win
“I'm taking a pack here at home. ... AJ said I don't care what the number is. Give me the Green Bay Packers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 21-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsDec 5, 2025
New York Jets to win
“Give me the Jets plus three here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 34-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersDec 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win
“I like the, I like Tampa Bay Bucks at home. Give me bake and the crew too.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 24-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh SteelersDec 5, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
“I'll give me the Steelers here, man. I think they find a way to keep it close.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 27-22
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsDec 5, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
“I'm in their city right now, but I'm going Jags on this one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 19-36
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsDec 5, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to win
“I think the Rams are still one of the best, football teams in the NFL, so give me the Rams here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 45-17
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ARI
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansDec 5, 2025
Houston Texans to win
“I like the Houston Texans here. I know they're underdogs in Kansas City.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 20-10
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsDec 5, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to win
“watching Joe Burrow, you know, breathe some life back into this team, I'm gonna take the Bengals”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 34-39
- skill:
- -128
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksDec 5, 2025
Seattle Seahawks to win
“I like Sam Donald in Seattle and what they are doing. ... So give me the Seahawks.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 37-9
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsDec 5, 2025
Cleveland Browns to win
“Yep. I like the Browns as well.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TEN
- score:
- 31-29
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersDec 5, 2025
Washington Commanders to win
“Yep. Same as you, commanders.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-128 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIN
- score:
- 0-31
- skill:
- -128
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosDec 5, 2025
Denver Broncos to win
“Yep. I love the Broncos here at minus seven.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Mike FlorioDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersMiss · 0Florio reports the Browns will start Deshaun Watson in Week 1 but predicts Shedeur Sanders will likely be the starting quarterback by Week 3.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Matt VerderameGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Verderame's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Mike KadlickGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Kadlick's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Nick Wright lays out his 2026 season picks: all eight division winners, the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins and a 6-0 start, Chiefs and Eagles in the Super Bowl with Kansas City winning, plus value picks on the Seahawks and Eagles to win the NFC.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Sherman previewed the AFC, picking the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans as division winners with Denver, New England and Jacksonville as wild cards, called several individual early-season games, and predicted a big year for Travis Hunter at cornerback.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Nick Wright locked in his preseason picks: the Ravens as the AFC's No. 1 seed with 13 wins, eight division winners, Eagles/Broncos/Chiefs to make the playoffs, Eagles and Seahawks to come out of the NFC, and a Chiefs win over the Eagles in the Super Bowl.