Marcus Mosher· May 13, 2024
Mosher names Will Levis, Aidan O'Connell and Drew Lock as the three quarterbacks most likely to break out in 2024, arguing improved supporting casts and opportunity set each up for a leap; he also suggests the Raiders could be a sneaky-fun team in the AFC if O'Connell wins the job.
“Here are three passers to watch closely.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived May 17, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
4 checkable claims — 3 sleeper calls and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsDrew LockNew York GiantsMay 13, 2024
Drew Lock to outplay his draft cost
“Drew Lock, QB, New York Giants ... Even average quarterback play would make a difference for the Giants, and Lock could give them that this season.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Drew Lock
- season:
- 2024
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB48
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB39
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2023 finish
- Sleeper CallsAidan O'ConnellLas Vegas RaidersMay 13, 2024
Aidan O'Connell to outplay his draft cost
“But things are set up well for O'Connell to have a breakout season.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Aidan O'Connell
- season:
- 2024
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB28
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB38
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2023 finish
- Sleeper CallsWill LevisTennessee TitansMay 13, 2024
Will Levis to outplay his draft cost
“Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans ... the Tennessee Titans set up Levis for a solid sophomore season after making several positive changes during the offseason.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Will Levis
- season:
- 2024
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB30
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2023 finish
- Surprise Team CallsLas Vegas RaidersMay 13, 2024
Las Vegas Raiders to beat expectations
“If that's the case, the Raiders could wind up being a sneaky, fun team in the AFC this season.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0In an unsigned Week 2 odds roundup, the piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Chad MillmanGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Chad Millman said he had taken money-line positions on several Week 1 underdogs — the Texans outright over the Bills, the Giants outright over Dallas (in a money-line underdog parlay), and Miami outright at Las Vegas — and that the show's survivor pick was the Steelers to win.
- Eric CohenGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Cohen says the Bears win easily in Carolina, and that Tennessee starts 1-0 over a Jets team he considers the third-worst in the league.
- John BreechGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Matt Money SmithSleeper Calls · Tre HarrisMiss · 0Smith says Ladd McConkie is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who could post a Jaylen Waddle-like season of roughly 1,700 yards and eight touchdowns, and he predicts second-year Chargers receiver Trey Harris will have a big year under Mike McDaniel. He also expects Philip Rivers to become an NFL head coach and thinks the Chargers offense will be good in the coming season.
- Brandon CarneySleeper Calls · Javonte WilliamsHit · 100Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonSleeper Calls · Saquon BarkleyMiss · 0Johnson says the Steelers aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders even with Aaron Rodgers back, and that Saquon Barkley can have a bounce-back season in year nine with the Eagles competing for a championship if the offensive line stays healthy.
- Ross JacksonSleeper Calls · Devaughn VeleMiss · 0Ross Jackson agreed to the same Saints mock draft board — Jeremiah Love at eight, Akeem Mesador in the second, Keonte Scott at 73, Keelan Rutledge and Ted Hurst in the fourth, Xavien Harris at 148, Aaron Anderson in the fifth and Bryce Boettcher in the sixth — and also called Devon Vellet a 2026 breakout candidate.
- Greg CosellSleeper Calls · Omarion HamptonMiss · 0Cosell expects the Nick Bonito vs. Will Campbell matchup to be pivotal, predicts Caleb Williams' future is bright, expects the Chargers' run game to improve dramatically under Mike McDaniel with a good season from Omarion Hampton, and expects Sean Payton not to hide Stidham.
- Andrew EricksonSleeper Calls · Saquon BarkleyMiss · 0Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low.