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Nick Wright· Jan 17, 2026

Nick trusts Josh Allen over the Broncos defense, picks the Bills to win outright in Denver (Bills +1.5 as his lock), picks the Patriots to beat the Texans by more than three, likes the 49ers to keep it close but not win, and predicts the Rams blow out the Bears roughly 42-28 with Stafford throwing about five TDs.

“I think Josh Allen's about to dog walk them.”

said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 player season number, 1 score prediction and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 45.6 out of 100, against 66.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 17, 2026

    Seattle Seahawks to win

    “Niners plus seven. I don't think the Niners are gonna win, but I also think that they are going to be able to keep it close.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    6-41
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Player Season NumbersMatthew StaffordLos Angeles RamsJan 17, 2026

    Matthew Stafford to record 5 passing tds

    “I think Stafford could have five touchdown passes.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    16.82
    skill:
    0
    what happened:
    46
    player:
    Matthew Stafford
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    predicted:
    5
    statistic:
    passing_tds
    difficulty:
    1
    last season:
    20
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    position average:
    13.64
    zero at percent out:
    50

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 17, 2026

    Buffalo Bills to win

    “Bills Bills are the better team... I think Josh Allen's about to dog walk them. Bills plus one and a half.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsJan 17, 2026

    Los Angeles Rams 42 — Bears 28

    “I think the Rams are gonna score 40 points... This feels to me like 42 to 28. So I will take the Rams minus four and a half.”

    Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 47.69+26.12 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    26.12
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    73.81
    baseline:
    47.69
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    14

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 17, 2026

    New England Patriots to win

    “But the right pick is Patriots minus three.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Top Player ListsJan 17, 2026

    “who do I trust, you know, in the fourth quarter of a playoff game... my list would be Patrick one, Stafford two, Allen three.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    -50
    placed:
    3
    season:
    2025
    players:
    3
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    QB 3: 0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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