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Ayrton Ostley· Apr 3, 2026

Ostley has consistently mocked Utah tackle Caleb Lomu to the 49ers at No. 27, believes Cassius Howell's short arms drop him out of the first round, and sees Derek Moore and Gabe Akas as second-round edge rushers.

“So I think that once he got that arm length at the combine, I felt like he dropped firmly out of the first round.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On 49ers (podcast) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 81.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where this call stands in the room

Caleb Lomu · 2026 season · overall pick

4 calls from 4 pundits between 19 overall pick and 28 overall pick. Ayrton Ostley said 27 overall pick. the room's median is 27 overall pick. what happened: 28 overall pick

Ayrton Ostley — 27 overall pickthe room — 4 calls from 4 punditsmedian 27 overall pickwhat happened — 28 overall pick

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
dropped firmly out of the first round (picks 1–32)They said
41What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Cashius Howell to be picked “dropped firmly out of the first round” (picks 1–32)

    “So I think that once he got that arm length at the combine, I felt like he dropped firmly out of the first round.”

    Close · 68Scored 67.71a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Cashius Howell
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    41
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    dropped firmly out of the first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27

    “you've been you've had Lamu going to the 40 niners per since pretty early on... This has been, somebody that you have targeted in all of your mock drafts”

    Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Caleb Lomu
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    28
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    27
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Derek Moore to be picked “round two”

    “Another couple guys I could see going in round two. Derek Moore out of Michigan.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Gabe Akas to be picked “round two”

    “Another couple guys I could see going in round two... And a name that I've been seeing really shooting up boards lately is Gabe Akas out of Illinois.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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