Fitzmorris made 10 first-round mock picks, starting with Arvel Reese to the Cardinals at No. 3 and including Caleb Downs to Dallas at 12 and Dillon Thieneman to Pittsburgh at 21.

10 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateCleveland BrownsApr 19, 2026

  “They're gonna take Carnel Tate's wide receiver. Ohio State”

  Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Carnell Tate

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  91.7

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  4

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  91.7

  predicted pick:

  6

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaKansas City ChiefsApr 19, 2026

  “So Francis Mawanoa, the tackle from Miami is going to be the pick here”

  Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Francis Mauigoa

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  95.76

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  10

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  95.76

  predicted pick:

  9

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsDallas CowboysApr 19, 2026

  “How about with Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State. What a great runout for Dallas staying put at number twelve”

  Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Caleb Downs

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  95.76

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  11

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  95.76

  predicted pick:

  12

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksKeldric FaulkTampa Bay BuccaneersApr 19, 2026

  “Keldric Falk the edge from Auburn. Buccaneers do need an edge.”

  Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Keldric Faulk

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  50

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  31

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  50

  predicted pick:

  15

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksCade McDonaldMinnesota VikingsApr 19, 2026

  “But I'm going to give the Vikings Caden McDonald, the defensive tackle from Ohio State.”

  Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Cade McDonald

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  undrafted

  outcome:

  went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  undrafted

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  0

  predicted pick:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksDillon ThienemanPittsburgh SteelersApr 19, 2026

  “Dylan Theeneman. They are going to take the safety from Oregon.”

  Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Dillon Thieneman

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  84.09

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  25

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  84.09

  predicted pick:

  21

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksKadyn ProctorCleveland BrownsApr 19, 2026

  “They are going to take Cayden Proctor... So they are going to go with Procter.”

  Scored 59.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Kadyn Proctor

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  59.46

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  12

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  59.46

  predicted pick:

  24

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuSan Francisco 49ersApr 19, 2026

  “Caleb Blomo, the tackle from Utah. I think the forty nine ers have to start hatching a plan to replace Trent Williams”

  Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Caleb Lomu

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  32

  accuracy:

  95.76

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  28

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  95.76

  predicted pick:

  27

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksChris JohnsonMiami DolphinsApr 19, 2026

  “Chris Johnson, cornerback from San Diego State... So he fits into the first round with Miami.”

  Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Chris Johnson

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  undrafted

  outcome:

  went undrafted in 2026; later signed with MIA

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  undrafted

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  0

  predicted pick:

  30

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?

• Mock Draft PicksArvel ReeseArizona CardinalsApr 19, 2026

  “R VIL Reese is still on the board for the Cardinals. Do they take him or go somewhere else. They are going to take him”

  Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skill
  How this was scored

  draft:

  2026

  naive:

  a shuffled mock scores 50

  skill:

  37.5

  player:

  Arvel Reese

  season:

  2026

  zero at:

  undrafted

  outcome:

  went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  50

  actual pick:

  undrafted

  difficulty:

  1

  weeks in the season:

  18

  pick accuracy:

  0

  predicted pick:

  3

  weeks left when called:

  0

  mock ordering score:

  87.5

  Think this is wrong?