Pat Fitzmaurice· Apr 19, 2026
Fitzmorris made 10 first-round mock picks, starting with Arvel Reese to the Cardinals at No. 3 and including Caleb Downs to Dallas at 12 and Dillon Thieneman to Pittsburgh at 21.
“How about with Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 10 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 66 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick30They said
27What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksChris JohnsonMiami DolphinsApr 19, 2026
Chris Johnson to be picked at number 30
“Chris Johnson, cornerback from San Diego State... So he fits into the first round with Miami.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.17 against a shuffle’s 50+39.17 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.17
- player:
- Chris Johnson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.17
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateCleveland BrownsApr 19, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6
“They're gonna take Carnel Tate's wide receiver. Ohio State”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 9
“So Francis Mawanoa, the tackle from Miami is going to be the pick here”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsDallas CowboysApr 19, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 12
“How about with Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State. What a great runout for Dallas staying put at number twelve”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 15
“Keldric Falk the edge from Auburn. Buccaneers do need an edge.”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Keldric Faulk
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 31
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 50
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCade McDonaldMinnesota VikingsApr 19, 2026
Cade McDonald to be picked at number 18
“But I'm going to give the Vikings Caden McDonald, the defensive tackle from Ohio State.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Cade McDonald
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 21
“Dylan Theeneman. They are going to take the safety from Oregon.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksKadyn ProctorCleveland BrownsApr 19, 2026
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 24
“They are going to take Cayden Proctor... So they are going to go with Procter.”
Close · 59Scored 59.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Kadyn Proctor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 59.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 59.46
- predicted pick:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuSan Francisco 49ersApr 19, 2026
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27
“Caleb Blomo, the tackle from Utah. I think the forty nine ers have to start hatching a plan to replace Trent Williams”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Caleb Lomu
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 28
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseArizona CardinalsApr 19, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“R VIL Reese is still on the board for the Cardinals. Do they take him or go somewhere else. They are going to take him”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Arvel Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100In a Week 2 preview, Middlekauff argued Matt LaFleur is under enormous pressure in Green Bay, predicted blowout wins for the 49ers over Miami and the Eagles over Tennessee, and offered season win-total views on the Saints, Buccaneers, Texans and Jaguars while backing Dallas to win the NFC East.
- Alain PoupartScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersClose · 71Poupart predicts the 49ers beat the Dolphins 27-17 at Levi's Stadium in Week 2, though he expects the game to be closer than the spread suggests. He also anticipates a larger role for De'Von Achane and a big passing day from Brock Purdy.
- Joshua SchulmanGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Schulman endorses the view that the Chiefs will beat the Colts in their Sunday night matchup, calling ESPN's heavy lean toward Kansas City a fair assessment.
- Derek BrownGame Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100In a Week 2 start/sit column, Derek Brown gave lineup advice on running backs, including a prediction that the 49ers would blow out the Dolphins.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Amid his Week 2 spread picks, Wright made a few straight-up calls: Jacksonville wins outright at Denver, Carolina wins at Atlanta, and he'd be stunned if Kansas City lost to Indianapolis. He also expected Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkie to sit out with injuries.
- Greg JenningsGame Outcome Picks · Arizona CardinalsMiss · 0Jennings put the Cardinals up as his upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; he also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Jermod McCoyMiss · 2Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Spencer FanoHit · 84Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.