Matt Miller· Feb 26, 2026
Miller's mock draft has Mendoza first to the Raiders, Arbel Reese second to the Jets, Miami tackle Mala Noah third to Arizona, Bane fourth to the Titans, Cornell Tate to the Giants, and Jeremiah Love to New Orleans at No. 8, with Ty Simpson barely a first-rounder.
“Jeremiah Love is my top player in the class.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 90.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveNew Orleans SaintsFeb 26, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8
“Jeremiah Love, you have him winding up in New Orleans... why would Kellen Moore pass on an offensive weapon like this guy at eight? And your your thought is he won't. They won't.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsFeb 26, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“So the Jets at two in your mock, you have Arbel Reese. ... And for the Jets, that's exactly what he could be.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York GiantsFeb 26, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“Cornell Tate, you have them going receiver rather than Caleb Downs ... I look at Cornell Tate as a six foot three, two hundred pound, excellent route runner, opposite the speed of Malik Neighbors.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaArizona CardinalsFeb 26, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
“On the third overall selection, you wind up with Maui Goa going from, the left side of the Miami offensive line going to Arizona.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Your mock draft, you have Fernando Mendoza at one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonFeb 26, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “barely in the first round” (picks 1–32)
“is is Simpson in your first round? Barely.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- barely in the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksB.J.Tennessee TitansFeb 26, 2026
B.J. to be picked at number 4
“And now you had Bane fourth to the, Titans. ... So Bane at four, the tape says, yeah. He's pretty good. He's probably worth number four.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanRoster Spot Calls · Jake HaenerMiss · 0Sullivan expects the Giants, thin at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury, to elevate Jake Haener from the practice squad for Week 3.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100PFF's preseason usage recap makes a number of depth-chart and roster projections, including nine rookie receivers slotting as top-three options on their teams, sleeper tight end usage, and specific depth-chart placements for Cardinals, Falcons and Ravens players.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Paulson AdeboHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Ross JacksonRoster Spot Calls · Juwan JohnsonHit · 100Ross Jackson gives his final preseason 53-man roster projection for the New Orleans Saints, naming who makes the initial roster at every position group, who starts on injured reserve or the practice squad, and who the five starting offensive linemen and kicker will be.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.