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Nick Wright· Jan 4, 2026

Wright argues Matt Stafford deserves MVP but predicts Drake Maye will win the award; he also picks Kyle Shanahan for Coach of the Year and Christian McCaffrey for Offensive Player of the Year over JSN. He makes several Week 18 game calls and thinks Seattle beats San Francisco to take the NFC's one seed, while the Raiders' loss scenario yields the No. 1 overall pick.

“So I think last night Drake May won the MVP and I do not like that at all.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

7 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 2 award picks, 1 coach award pick and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 4, 2026

    Seattle Seahawks to beat San Francisco

    “I think Seattle gets the one seed. I think Seattle will lay the point. I think they win.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    6-41
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsJan 4, 2026

    Chicago Bears to beat Packers

    “I think that if they win against Detroit and get the two seed, I think they'll beat the Packers in round two. In round one”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Seeding, Byes and Home FieldSeattle SeahawksJan 4, 2026

    Seattle Seahawks to take the top seed

    “I think it makes more sense for Seattle to be the one seed... I think Seattle gets the one seed.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    106
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    checked as:
    the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
    actual tier:
    bye
    difficulty:
    1.06
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    1
    claimed tier:
    bye
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksDrake MayeNew England PatriotsJan 4, 2026

    Drake Maye to win MVP

    “So I think last night Drake May won the MVP and I do not like that at all... it's now going to be betting wise, it's over and conventional wisdom wise, Drake May won the award”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Drake Maye
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksChristian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ersJan 4, 2026

    Christian McCaffrey to win Offensive Player of the Year

    “Christian McCaffrey should win. Often to play the year over JSN”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    offensive_player_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Christian McCaffrey
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Coach Award PicksJan 4, 2026

    Kyle Shanahan to win Coach of the Year

    “I think Shanahan's been coach of the year... No, I would give it to Shanahan and Christian McCaffrey.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    coach_of_the_year
    coach:
    Kyle Shanahan
    naive:
    the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Mike Vrabel
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.06
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersJan 4, 2026

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Carolina

    “I just don't think Tampa's gonna go out this sad. I'll lay the two and a half with Tampa”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

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