Mike Fanelli· Aug 15, 2026
Fanelli names six players as overpriced busts to avoid at their NFFC redraft ADPs: Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, TreVeyon Henderson, Keaton Mitchell, Justin Jefferson and Dalton Kincaid. He also expects Omarion Hampton to be the Chargers' featured back.
“Let's look at six players who are overpriced draft picks based on NFFC ADP for redraft leagues.”
published in writing · FantasyPros · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 6 fantasy bust calls and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Where this call stands in the room
Omarion Hampton · 2026 season3 calls from 3 pundits between 1 and 1. Mike Fanelli said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against the room
Their call against everyone else's, while this is still unsettled.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart
“Omarion Hampton will be the featured guy, with Kimani Vidal and Mitchell mixing in.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Keaton Mitchell to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 135.16 | RB43)
“Keaton Mitchell (LAC) – ADP 135.16 | RB43 ... Therefore, Mitchell is vastly overvalued at his current ADP.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsTrevor LawrenceAug 15, 2026
Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 89.11 | QB8)
“Trevor Lawrence (JAC) – ADP 89.11 | QB8 ... There is no reason why Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott should get drafted after him.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago BearsAug 15, 2026
Caleb Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 83.09 | QB5)
“Caleb Williams (CHI) – ADP 83.09 | QB5 ... he is overpriced at his current ADP.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
TreVeyon Henderson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 55.28 | RB21)
“TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – ADP 55.28 | RB21 ... Neither Patriots running back should get drafted as more than a flex option.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 11.94 | WR6)
“Justin Jefferson (MIN) – ADP 11.94 | WR6 ... fantasy players want to avoid drafting Jefferson as a top-six wide receiver or a first-round pick.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsDalton KincaidBuffalo BillsAug 15, 2026
Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 118.51 | TE10)
“Dalton Kincaid (BUF) – ADP 118.51 | TE10 ... Kincaid no longer has a realistic shot at being first or second on his team in targets, which is necessary to justify his ADP”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to open the season as Minnesota's starting quarterback and to be one of the better quarterback values in 2026 fantasy drafts, and he likewise likes Tyler Shough as New Orleans' entrenched starter with an easy schedule.
- Mike MoraitisDepth Chart Calls · Ozzy TrapiloMiss · 0Moraitis writes that although Braxton Jones has looked like the favorite, Ozzy Trapilo is likely to take over as the Bears' starting left tackle once he's healthy enough to play.
- Pete MartuneacDepth Chart Calls · Ozzy TrapiloMiss · 0After Trapilo's activation from the PUP list roughly seven months after rupturing his patellar tendon, Martuneac says the Bears' left tackle competition is over and Trapilo will be starting at left tackle early in the 2026 season, even if not by Week 1.
- Matt OkadaDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100In a PPR-framed fantasy draft guide, Okada makes a few non-fantasy claims: rookie Jeremiyah Love will be Arizona's featured back despite being listed as RB2, Tua Tagovailoa will be Atlanta's Week 1 starter, and Kyler Murray will open the season as Minnesota's starting quarterback.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Mike HarmonFantasy Bust Calls · Joe BurrowHit · 100Harmon gave his Week 18 fantasy rankings — top five quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — plus lists of 'hot plays,' 'cold sores' (players to avoid) and 'ninjas' (sneaky plays), and said Trevor Lawrence would land around a top-four fantasy quarterback finish for the season.
- Ryan WormeliFantasy Bust Calls · Ashton JeantyMiss · 0Warmley predicted Kyle Pitts and Trey McBride both finish as top-five tight ends in the Cardinals-Falcons game, Justin Jefferson bounces back into the top 15 receivers, Quinshen Judkins finishes top 12 against Buffalo, the Ravens beat the Patriots, and the Raiders produce no startable fantasy players against Houston.
- Patrick ClaybonFantasy Bust Calls · Aaron RodgersHit · 100Claibon says Aaron Rodgers' deep-passing outburst was a one-week product of Baltimore's defense and won't continue, still endorses starting Jacoby Brissett in a tough Houston matchup, and picks Devon Achane as the top running back and AJ Brown as the top receiver for Week 15.
- Marcas GrantFantasy Bust Calls · Michael PittmanMiss · 0Grant calls Christian Watson the Packers' clear No. 1 receiver and RJ Harvey Denver's lead back, while labeling Mike Gesicki's and Tony Pollard's big weeks mirages to avoid; he also wants no part of Colts pass catchers with Philip Rivers signing. For Week 15 he picks Matthew Stafford as the top quarterback and Puka Nacua among the top receivers.
- Andrew EricksonFantasy Bust Calls · Cooper KuppHit · 100Erickson reiterated his prediction that Jordan Mason will lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, backed the Broncos to blow out the Titans in Week 1, called Garrett Wilson a sell and Jacoby Myers a buy-low, expects little from Cooper Kupp, and made several depth-chart calls (Thornton starting in New England, Myers as Vegas' No. 1 receiver, Croskey-Merritt eventually taking the Commanders' 'A back' role).
- Ryan WormeliFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.