Jamie Erdahl · Sep 3, 2025

Erdahl picks Baker Mayfield for MVP, Micah Parsons for Defensive Player of the Year, and has the Buccaneers, Ravens, Giants and Jaguars in the playoffs, with Jacksonville winning the AFC South.

“Michaeh. Parsons will be the next one to do it for the Green Bay Packers.”

said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →

7 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Award Picks Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay BuccaneersSep 3, 2025
“I put him in my playoff team selections, and that's why I go with Baker as Mambie.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Baker Mayfield
season:
2025
winner:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Micah Parsons Green Bay PackersSep 3, 2025
“Michael Parsons, you are new to the Green Bay Packer and you are the NFL Defensive Player of the Year story.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Pat Surtain II, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Micah Parsons
season:
2025
winner:
Myles Garrett
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks New York GiantsSep 3, 2025
“I am most proud of me sticking to my New York Giants gut feeling”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Tampa Bay BuccaneersSep 3, 2025
“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Baltimore RavensSep 3, 2025
“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Jaxson Dart New York GiantsSep 3, 2025
“do you see russ or Dart taking that first snap? Jackson Dart?”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
16.67
player:
Jaxson Dart
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Jacksonville JaguarsSep 3, 2025
“I put the Jags in... they can win the AFS and South.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?