AJ Hawk· Jan 16, 2026
Hawk picked the Bills to beat the Broncos, the Patriots to beat the Texans behind Drake Maye at home, and the Rams to win in Chicago.
“I am sticking with my Buffalo Bills right here.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 16, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to win
“I'm gonna take the, Los Angeles Rams... I'll take them at minus four and a half on the road... So give me the Rams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 16, 2026
Buffalo Bills to win
“I am sticking with my Buffalo Bills right here. And Josh Allen, I think he finds a way to to get it done... but the Bills get it done.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansJan 16, 2026
Houston Texans to win
“but I like Drake May at home minus three. I think they find a way. I think this Patriots defense steps up”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Nick ShookRoster Spot Calls · Aaron DonaldHit · 100Shook unveiled his first NFL power rankings of the year, putting the Rams first, the Broncos second and the defending champion Seahawks only third, with the Dolphins last.
- John BreechGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Breech picks the Texans to upset the Bills in Houston, trusting Houston's defense to smother Josh Allen, and takes the Raiders to beat the Dolphins by at least a touchdown.
- Judah FortgangGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0PFF's divisional-round same-game parlay picks: Tampa Bay beats Cincinnati with Cade Otton exploiting the Bengals' linebackers, Las Vegas beats Miami behind Kirk Cousins attacking a depleted Dolphins secondary, and Houston beats Buffalo with C.J. Stroud throwing effectively and Jaylin Noel benefiting from the slot matchup.
- Judah FortgangGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0An unsigned PFF betting piece argues Cooper Rush will struggle against Pittsburgh's disruption pressure in Week 1, and that Buffalo's rebuilt secondary without Sean McDermott will be exploitable by C.J. Stroud, leading them to back Houston winning through the air.
- Simon HunterGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Hunter picked Houston and the Giants as underdog money line plays, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit as favorites, and used Pittsburgh plus the Chargers as his survivor picks for week one.
- Chad MillmanGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Millman backed several week one sides outright: Miami to beat the Raiders straight up, the Jets over the Titans, an underdog money line parlay of Houston and the Giants, and a favorites money line parlay of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit. He also stands by his preseason take that Drake Maye is a top-five NFL quarterback.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; he also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Eric ManginiGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment he backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and his Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as his MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.
- Shannon SharpeGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Sharpe predicted Matthew Stafford would throw four touchdowns in the Thursday night game against the 49ers, picked Tampa Bay to beat Cincinnati at home, took the Broncos over Kansas City on Monday night with Bonitto getting 2.5 sacks, and expects big fantasy value from kicker Brandon Aubrey.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0An unsigned CBS Sports piece flags five Week 1 underdogs as upset candidates: the 49ers over the Rams in Melbourne, the Texans over the Bills, the Panthers over the Bears, the Jets over the Titans, and the Broncos over the Chiefs on Monday night.
- Mitch GoldichGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosMiss · 0Goldich's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.