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Jeff Cavanaugh· Jan 16, 2026

Jeff made his divisional-round picks: Denver over Buffalo, Seattle over San Francisco, Houston over New England, and the Rams over Chicago. He also guessed Clemson corner Avion Terrell will weigh around 180 pounds when measured at the combine.

“But, eventually, I settled on, yes. I will take Denver.”

said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks and 1 combine measurement — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 72 out of 100, against 73.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Combine MeasurementsAvieon TerrellJan 16, 2026

    “And he might be the lightest of the top corners. Like, I bet he's one eighty... When we're at the combine, they're gonna measure him.”

    Close · 60Scored 59.91a naive guess scored 65.46-5.55 skill
    How this was scored
    off:
    6
    drill:
    weight lbs
    naive:
    the average CB (190.96, from 240 results)
    scale:
    credit halves every 8.12 — one standard deviation for a CB
    skill:
    -5.55
    player:
    Avieon Terrell
    result:
    186
    season:
    2025
    combine year:
    2026
    accuracy:
    59.91
    baseline:
    65.46
    predicted:
    180
    sigmas out:
    0.74
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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  • Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 16, 2026

    Seattle Seahawks to win

    “niners at Seahawks is tomorrow night, and I picked the Seahawks because I think the niners are beat up... And so I took Seattle.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    6-41
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosJan 16, 2026

    Denver Broncos to win

    “it was so hard for me to pull the trigger on Bo Nicks over Josh Allen... But, eventually, I settled on, yes. I will take Denver.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 16, 2026

    Los Angeles Rams to win

    “Final playoff game of the weekend will be Sunday evening with your, Rams at Bears... On this one, I did take the quarterback”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansJan 16, 2026

    Houston Texans to win

    “Texans at Patriots. I took the Texans, but that may be recency bias... But I'm taking the Texans' defense to beat... The Patriots.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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