Cynthia Frelund· Sep 19, 2025
Freelan's three picks all back teams she thinks are wrongly listed as underdogs: the Cowboys winning outright in Chicago, the Texans beating the Jaguars, and the Patriots beating the Steelers. She also says the Buccaneers beat the Jets but not convincingly, and predicts a Trevion Henderson breakout.
“I absolutely think the wrong team is favored in Chicago.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
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4 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 25 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansSep 19, 2025
Houston Texans to beat Jags
“I think that the Textan's top the Jags.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-17
- skill:
- -189
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 19, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Jets
“I think that the Bucks win. I don't think that they win in a very super convincing fashion”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 27-29
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsSep 19, 2025
New England Patriots to beat Steelers
“I'm going to keep it with the spicy ones that are the wrong favorite... The Patriots... I just think their defense is more than what the... old line for the Steelers can handle.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 21-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysSep 19, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to beat Chicago Bears
“So I'm gonna go ahead and take them because I have the Cowboys winning that outright”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-189 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 14-31
- skill:
- -189
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
What others said about the same people
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Justin BarronMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Jared KochRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Koch argues Kayshon Boutte is a winner in the trade to Houston, likely to see many more snaps and potentially post a career season, while Xavier Hutchinson's path to a breakout gets harder. He also sees Kamari Ramsey stepping up as the primary backup safety behind a top three of Bullock, Pitre and Blankenship, and views Jared Wayne as a fringe roster player squeezed by receivers he calls virtual locks.
- Lance ZierleinRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Zierlein expects Texans QB C.J. Stroud to play roughly 10-12 plays in Thursday's preseason game, with Davis Mills going to halftime and newly signed Brett Rypien playing the entire second half. He also said if Tank Dell isn't ready, Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall would both likely make the roster, and predicted Keelan Rutledge will be the starting center with Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith starting.
- Lance ZierleinRoster Spot Calls · Lewis BondHit · 100Zierlein expects Trevor Goosby, Texas' starting left tackle, to be a first-round NFL draft pick, and thinks Quinn Ewers may struggle to stay on the Dolphins' roster beyond this year. He also predicts the Texans' preseason quarterback usage: C.J. Stroud around 10-12 plays, Davis Mills through the first half, and Brett Rypien for the second half. If Tank Dell isn't ready, he thinks Lewis Bond and Jaden Hall could both make the roster.
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandMiss · 0Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick WrightGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Nick Wright expects the Bills to beat the Lions comfortably in the Thursday night home opener, with Josh Allen shredding a depleted Detroit secondary, and he also picks a workmanlike Chiefs win over the Colts on Sunday night. He further predicts Tyreek Hill will end up on the Chiefs by around Halloween.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsMiss · 0A CBS Sports column flags five Week 2 favorites on upset alert, effectively backing the underdogs — Lions at Bills, Bengals at Texans, Jets over Packers, Jaguars at Broncos and Saints at Ravens — to pull off wins.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sherman ran through the entire Week 2 slate with winners and several exact final scores, picking Seattle, San Francisco, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, New England, Jacksonville, Dallas, Kansas City, the Rams, Green Bay, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and Carolina. He also called Fred Warner the league's best middle linebacker and floated Parker Washington as a top-five receiver.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsMiss · 0The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") gave his own Week 2 picks: Seattle, the Niners in dominant fashion, his Lions over Buffalo, Cincinnati 31-27 at Houston, Chicago, Pittsburgh 24-21 as a road upset, Jacksonville by at least a touchdown, Dallas 26-22, and Kansas City handily.
- Joe MarinoGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Marino predicts the Bills beat the Lions in the Thursday night home opener to go 2-0, and expects a shootout with Goff and Allen combining for over 600 passing yards (each with a good chance at 300+).
- Walter CherepinskyGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the Week 2 Thursday night game, he predicts the Bills beat the Lions 31-24, expecting Detroit's offense to bounce back but Buffalo to prevail, with Josh Allen thriving and James Cook struggling again.