Chris Brockman · Apr 28, 2025
Brockman argued the Giants should start Jaxson Dart from day one, predicted Shedeur Sanders would start the most games at quarterback for the Browns in 2025, said Caleb Williams would break the Bears' single-season passing yardage and touchdown records, forecast three of the top-five drafting teams making the playoffs, and picked Carolina to win the NFC South while Tampa Bay still makes the playoffs.
“I think the Panthers are gonna win the NFC South.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
6 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Depth Chart CallsJaxson DartNew York GiantsApr 28, 2025
Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart
“the Giants, they should just go ahead and start Jackson dart day one”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- naive basis:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Player Season NumbersCaleb WilliamsChicago BearsApr 28, 2025
Caleb Williams to record 3,900 passing yards
“Caleb Williams is gonna break the Bears passing and touchdown records in 2025... 30 touchdowns and 3,900 yards.”
Hit · 98Scored 97.87a naive guess scored 31.73+132.28 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 2596.37
- skill:
- 132.28
- what happened:
- 3942
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 97.87
- baseline:
- 31.73
- predicted:
- 3900
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 3541
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersApr 28, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“They still have a really good season. There's still a playoff team.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- naive said:
- true
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made playoffs:
- false
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Player Season NumbersCaleb WilliamsChicago BearsApr 28, 2025
Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds
“Caleb Williams is gonna break the Bears passing and touchdown records in 2025. That's a tall order, pal. 30 touchdowns and 3,900 yards.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 24.61+110.78 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 16.82
- skill:
- 110.78
- what happened:
- 27
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 24.61
- predicted:
- 30
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 20
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Depth Chart CallsShedeur SandersCleveland BrownsApr 28, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be 1st on the depth chart
“Shedeur is gonna end up starting the most games at quarterback for the Browns this year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Division WinnersCarolina PanthersApr 28, 2025
Carolina Panthers to win the division
“I think the Panthers are gonna win the NFC South.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.