Chris Brockman· Dec 8, 2025
Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.
“Josh Allen is still the most dangerous quarterback in the NFL, and the Bills are gonna win a playoff game.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 2 division winners, 1 conference champion, 1 playoff pick, 1 positional finishe, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 45.2 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Mac Jones to move to Indianapolis Colts
“They should trade for Mac Jones this offseason.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Mac Jones
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- IND
- was with:
- JAX
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- SF
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Division WinnersCarolina PanthersDec 8, 2025
Carolina Panthers to win the division
“The NFC South is their division to lose.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- yes
- Conference ChampionsHouston TexansDec 8, 2025
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
“They're gonna be playing in the AFC championship game.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo BillsDec 8, 2025
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
“I think that whoever doesn't win the AFC East is gonna be the five seed, and I think they absolutely go into Pittsburgh or Baltimore and win that playoff game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- seeds 5–7 visit a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- visitor
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 5
- claimed tier:
- visitor
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Division WinnersGreen Bay PackersDec 8, 2025
Green Bay Packers to win the division
“The road to the Super Bowl and the NFC goes through Lambeau Field.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- no
- Positional FinishesJosh AllenBuffalo BillsDec 8, 2025
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“Josh Allen is still the most dangerous quarterback in the NFL”
Miss · 17Scored 16.67a naive guess scored 75-74.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -74.67
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 14
- actual finish:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Playoff PicksBuffalo BillsDec 8, 2025
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“the Bills are gonna win a playoff game”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 5
What others said about the same people
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Buffalo Bills' final 53-man roster ahead of Week 1 against Houston, naming every player who makes it, who gets cut, and a few depth-chart outcomes (Damar Hamlin as backup safety, Alec Anderson as a new starter on the offensive line, Shane Buechele back on the practice squad).
- Joe MarinoRoster Spot Calls · Te'Cory CouchMiss · 0Joe Marino gives his final projection of the Buffalo Bills' initial 53-man roster after the preseason finale, naming who makes it, who gets cut, and who lands on injured reserve/PUP, along with several starting-job calls (Kyle Allen as QB2, TJ Sanders starting over Landon Jackson, Maxwell Hairston starting opposite Christian Benford, and Tommy Doman winning the punting job).
- Mike KadlickScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 7Kadlick expects an ugly, low-scoring Thursday night game at Lambeau Field, with Green Bay beating Atlanta 10–7 to move to 2–1 while the Falcons drop to 0–3 in Michael Penix Jr.'s return.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 24Dubin picks the Packers to beat the Falcons comfortably on Thursday Night Football, predicting a 23-13 Green Bay win.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 17Dajani gave final-score predictions for eight Week 3 games, picking the Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Buccaneers (upset), Ravens, Broncos (upset) and Eagles to win.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 24Dubin gave final-score predictions for the same eight Week 3 games, picking the Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Vikings, Ravens, Rams and Eagles.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.