Chris Brockman· Oct 6, 2025
Chris Brockman said Baker Mayfield will finish no lower than third in MVP voting, named Kyle Shanahan the coach of the year front-runner, and predicted both the Giants and Jets will pick in the top five of next year's draft.
“Baker Mayfield will finish no lower than third in the MVP this season.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 team draft slot calls, 1 award pick and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall picktop five (picks 1–5)They said
5What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York GiantsOct 6, 2025
New York Giants to pick “top five” (picks 1–5)
“Both the Giants and the Jets will be picking in the top five next [April]”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 3 the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- top five (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York JetsOct 6, 2025
New York Jets to pick “top five” (picks 1–5)
“Both the Giants and the Jets will be picking in the top five next [April]”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.7+14.77 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 7 the year before
- skill:
- 14.77
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.7
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- top five (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Baker Mayfield to win MVP
“I think he's actually probably the MVP right now through five weeks, but Baker Mayfield will finish no lower than third in the MVP this season.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Coach Award PicksOct 6, 2025
Kyle Shanahan to win Coach of the Year
“Kyle Shanahan is coach of the year front runner right now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Kyle Shanahan
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Mike Vrabel
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanRoster Spot Calls · Jake HaenerMiss · 0Sullivan expects the Giants, thin at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury, to elevate Jake Haener from the practice squad for Week 3.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Paulson AdeboHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Bob FolgerRoster Spot Calls · Zaire BarnesHit · 100Reviewing the Giants' defense and special teams in the preseason game against Miami, Folger states he has little doubt linebacker Zaire Barnes will make the roster, largely on the strength of his special teams play.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Braxton BerriosMiss · 0Traina projects the Giants' Week 1 inactive list: Darius Slayton, Thomas Fidone II, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Elijah Campbell, J.C. Davis and Bobby Jamison-Travis, with Braxton Berrios elevated from the practice squad.
- Carter BahnsRoster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr.Miss · 0The unsigned newsletter names five big-name veterans it expects to be cut ahead of Sunday's 53-man roster deadline, saying not to be surprised if they are free agents by the end of the weekend.
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Malik NabersHit · 100Previewing the Giants' preseason finale, Traina says John Michael Schmitz is locked in as the starting center and identifies Malik Nabers, Malachi Fields and Darius Slayton as receivers certain to make the 53-man roster.
More team draft slot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jake RiepmaTeam Draft Slot Calls · Detroit LionsHit · 100Filling in on Locked On Lions, Jake Reitma dismisses ESPN's suggestion that Sam LaPorta could be traded, saying LaPorta stays in Detroit as part of the core four. He also breaks down the edge class ahead of the Lions' pick at No. 17, calling David Bailey the class's top edge prospect with Reuben Bain Jr. next, and picks the Pistons as the NBA's best team.
- Kent SwansonTeam Draft Slot Calls · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 26After the Chiefs' 14-12 loss to the Raiders, Kent laid out the resulting draft order: Kansas City picking ninth overall (and 40th in round two) in the 2026 draft, with New Orleans eighth, Cincinnati tenth, and the Raiders holding the No. 1 pick.
- Rich EisenTeam Draft Slot Calls · Miami DolphinsClose · 74Eisen picked the Bills to finish with the NFL's best record, said the Dolphins look like a top-five draft pick team, chose the Chiefs over the Colts to make the playoffs despite their 0-2 start, and made week-three picks: Bengals to go 3-0, the Jets to win at Tampa, and he leaned Steelers over the Patriots.
- Rich EisenTeam Draft Slot Calls · Green Bay PackersClose · 42Eisen predicts the Cowboys will be picking around No. 32 in next year's draft, i.e. Green Bay's first-rounder will be near the end of the round.
- Tom PelisseroTeam Draft Slot Calls · Pittsburgh SteelersClose · 77Pelissero says it wouldn't shock him if Shedeur Sanders is part of an open quarterback competition in Cleveland heading into training camp, expects Cam Ward to be the Titans' starter by the preseason, and suggests that if Aaron Rodgers plays poorly the Steelers could hold a top-15 pick in the 2026 draft and target a quarterback.
- Daniel JeremiahTeam Draft Slot Calls · Tennessee TitansHit · 100As relayed by Eisen, Jeremiah said the Titans will use the No. 1 overall pick rather than trade it, and he ranked Travis Hunter second overall on his draft board and first among wide receivers.