Kent Swanson· Jan 5, 2026
After the Chiefs' 14-12 loss to the Raiders, Kent laid out the resulting draft order: Kansas City picking ninth overall (and 40th in round two) in the 2026 draft, with New Orleans eighth, Cincinnati tenth, and the Raiders holding the No. 1 pick.
“Ladies and gentlemen, the Kansas City Chiefs will be picking ninth after that loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.”
said on air, transcribed by us · KC Sports Network (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 5 team draft slot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 67.4 out of 100, against 55.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick10They said
41What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Team Draft Slot CallsCincinnati BengalsJan 5, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to pick at number 10
“The Bengals are six and eleven, they'll be picking tenth.”
Miss · 26Scored 26.11a naive guess scored 35.36-9.25 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 17 the year before
- skill:
- -9.25
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 26.11
- baseline:
- 35.36
- actual pick:
- 41
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Team Draft Slot CallsKansas City ChiefsJan 5, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 9
“the Chiefs fall to six and eleven and secure themselves a top 10 selection in the twenty twenty six NFL draft. Ladies and gentlemen, the Kansas City Chiefs will be picking ninth after that loss to the Las Vegas Raiders”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 32.42+55.39 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 32 the year before
- skill:
- 55.39
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 32.42
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Team Draft Slot CallsKansas City ChiefsJan 5, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to pick at number 40
“So what'll happen is the Chiefs will move up to the eighth spot in round two... What that would mean the Chiefs are picking fortieth? Ninth and fortieth?”
Miss · 23Scored 22.93a naive guess scored 32.42-9.5 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 32 the year before
- skill:
- -9.5
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 22.93
- baseline:
- 32.42
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 40
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew Orleans SaintsJan 5, 2026
New Orleans Saints to pick at number 8
“The Saints are six and eleven, they will be picking eighth.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95.76+4.24 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 9 the year before
- skill:
- 4.24
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 95.76
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Team Draft Slot CallsLas Vegas RaidersJan 5, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 1
“you already got the one seed locked or the the number one pick locked up”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 80.52+19.48 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 6 the year before
- skill:
- 19.48
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 80.52
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Fernando Alfaro-DonisTrade and Signing Calls · Kayshon BoutteMiss · 0Argues the Raiders' weakest spot is their receiver room, expects Jalen Nailor to take a big step forward in Klint Kubiak's scheme with Kirk Cousins starting before Fernando Mendoza takes over, and suggests Las Vegas should trade a mid-round pick for Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte, who would immediately become their top option.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Stefon DiggsMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
- Pat FitzmauriceTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Fitzmorris made picks 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28 and 31 in the 2026 mock, ranked the top three receiver prospects Tate-Lemon-Tyson, said Caleb Downs won't fall to Day 2, and predicted Trey Hendrickson won't be back in Cincinnati.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsClose · 57Prisco is the lone expert cited picking Kansas City, 20-17 over Denver.
- Mike FlorioScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsClose · 57Florio gives score predictions for every Week 1 game of the 2026 NFL season, including an opening-night upset by the Patriots in Seattle and narrow home wins for the Giants and Chiefs.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Pluym's Week 1 straight-up picks for all 16 games.
More team draft slot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jake RiepmaTeam Draft Slot Calls · Detroit LionsHit · 100Filling in on Locked On Lions, Jake Reitma dismisses ESPN's suggestion that Sam LaPorta could be traded, saying LaPorta stays in Detroit as part of the core four. He also breaks down the edge class ahead of the Lions' pick at No. 17, calling David Bailey the class's top edge prospect with Reuben Bain Jr. next, and picks the Pistons as the NBA's best team.
- David HarrisonTeam Draft Slot Calls · New York JetsHit · 100Harrison proposes and defends a hypothetical trade sending Daron Payne plus a third- and sixth-round pick to the Raiders for Maxx Crosby, plus a follow-up trade of the No. 7 pick to the Jets for picks 16 and 33. He also states Fernando Mendoza is expected to go No. 1 overall to the Raiders, and floats the Jets taking David Bailey at No. 7 if they trade up.
- Chris BrockmanTeam Draft Slot Calls · New York GiantsHit · 100Chris Brockman said Baker Mayfield will finish no lower than third in MVP voting, named Kyle Shanahan the coach of the year front-runner, and predicted both the Giants and Jets will pick in the top five of next year's draft.
- Rich EisenTeam Draft Slot Calls · New York JetsHit · 100Rich Eisen reaffirmed his pick of the Lions to win the NFC while insisting the Eagles remain the team to beat, predicted the Colts beat the Cardinals on a last-second field goal, said the Chargers will not miss the playoffs, and expects Jake Browning to keep starting in Cincinnati and JJ McCarthy to return as Minnesota's starter. He also praised Jonathan Taylor as the best running back and OPOY-caliber, called Emeka Abuka the offensive rookie of the year, agreed Kyle Shanahan is the coach of the year front-runner, and said the Jets will pick in the top five.
- Rich EisenTeam Draft Slot Calls · Miami DolphinsClose · 74Eisen picked the Bills to finish with the NFL's best record, said the Dolphins look like a top-five draft pick team, chose the Chiefs over the Colts to make the playoffs despite their 0-2 start, and made week-three picks: Bengals to go 3-0, the Jets to win at Tampa, and he leaned Steelers over the Patriots.
- Rich EisenTeam Draft Slot Calls · Green Bay PackersClose · 42Eisen predicts the Cowboys will be picking around No. 32 in next year's draft, i.e. Green Bay's first-rounder will be near the end of the round.