Jake Riepma· Apr 8, 2026
Jake predicted David Bailey would be the first edge rusher drafted, and in his own Lions mock pick he took Miami edge Akeem Mesador at No. 17 in the 2026 draft. He also expects returning defensive back Ivante Maddox to be starting for Detroit early in the season.
“I think David Bailey will be the first edge picked.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Lions (podcast) · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call, 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 90.3 out of 100, against 31.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksAkheem MesidorDetroit LionsApr 8, 2026
Akheem Mesidor to be picked at number 17
“just to be different, I'm gonna go with Hakeem Mazadore because, he's on the board still... (Lions at pick 17 in the twenty twenty six NFL draft)”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Akheem Mesidor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 22
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Position Order CallsDavid BaileyApr 8, 2026
David Bailey to be 1st edge off the board
“I think I think David Bailey will be the first edge picked.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 13.13+86.87 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 26 at random averages 13.13
- skill:
- 86.87
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 13.13
- position:
- edge
- class size:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsAvonte MaddoxDetroit LionsApr 8, 2026
Avonte Maddox to be 1st on the depth chart
“He's a guy that started some games for this Detroit Lions team the past season because he was called into action. And given the position group, he probably will be doing the exact same thing early in the season, especially.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Richard ShermanScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 90Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Colin CowherdScore Predictions · Detroit LionsClose · 60The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") made his own Week 3 picks, including blowout wins for Seattle and San Francisco, Cincinnati 27-17, Detroit 37-13, Denver 24-21 over the Rams, and predicted Jonah Coleman takes over the Broncos' running back role.
- Tyler SullivanScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 88Sullivan projects final scores for every Week 3 game, including a Bills blowout of the reeling Chargers, a Chiefs rout in Miami, a Seahawks win over a Mariota-led Washington, and the Saints beating the Raiders in their home opener. He also expects Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart all to be sidelined in Week 3, with Marcus Mariota starting for Washington.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 95Prisco picks every Week 3 game with exact scores, highlighting upsets by Tampa Bay over Minnesota and Cleveland over Carolina, and expects the Giants to rally behind Jameis Winston.
- John BreechScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 100Breech predicts the Dolphins will miss the playoffs and may go winless, and picks every Week 3 game with scores, including Texans over Colts, a Buccaneers upset of Minnesota, Ravens over Cowboys in Brazil, Saints over Raiders and Broncos over Rams.
- Mike FlorioGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Florio says the Lions' next three games — vs. the Jets, at the Panthers, at the Cardinals — are winnable, and that if all goes well Detroit will be 4-1 heading into its bye.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.