Nick Wright· Oct 3, 2025
Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. He also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.
“I do not think the forty nine ers have a chance tonight.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
11 checkable claims — 5 playoff picks, 2 depth chart calls, 2 game outcome picks and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 11 have settled, averaging 46.2 out of 100, against 62.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
11 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Tyquan Thornton to be 3rd on the depth chart
“all of a sudden, you have Thornton as your number three, Hollywood is your four, Juju is depth”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 100-29.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- KC
- skill:
- -29.67
- player:
- Tyquan Thornton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 5
- actual slot:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Tetairoa McMillan to finish top 5 at his position, by receiving yards
“he's certainly demons has to be in your top five. Certainly.”
Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 0+44.5 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 44.5
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at WR
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 36
- actual finish:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 5
- Positional FinishesJustin JeffersonOct 3, 2025
Justin Jefferson to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
“I still think Jefferson is the best receiver in football”
Miss · 17Scored 16.67a naive guess scored 25-14.83 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -14.83
- player:
- Justin Jefferson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 25
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 2
- actual finish:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 1
Marquise Brown to be 4th on the depth chart
“you have Thornton as your number three, Hollywood is your four, Juju is depth”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 58.33+44.5 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- KC
- skill:
- 44.5
- player:
- Marquise Brown
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 58.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 7
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensOct 3, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to beat Texans
“if we just play this out and I think they are going to win this weekend... I think they could win with with Cooper Rush... if you just run Dereck Henry thirty five times, I think you can beat up flailing Texans team”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 44-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersOct 3, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“we're saying, the Steelers are going to be in”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Playoff PicksBuffalo BillsOct 3, 2025
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“the Bills are going to be in under this scenario”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsOct 3, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Jacksonville
“I would be very surprised if Kansas City can't go to Jacksonville and figure out how to get a win against a really good Jags team... But I don't think they're gonna win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-178 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 28-31
- skill:
- -178
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsOct 3, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“We're gonna put the Chiefs and the Chargers in”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersOct 3, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“We're gonna put the Chiefs and the Chargers in”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Playoff PicksIndianapolis ColtsOct 3, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs
“let's just say the Colts keep doing what they're doing and they're in those five teams”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-178 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- IND
- skill:
- -178
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 14
What others said about the same people
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football, sticking with preseason expectations over Week 1 overreaction. He gives two conditional scores depending on whether Puka Nacua plays: a comfortable 27-17 win if Nacua suits up, and a narrow 17-16 win if he sits.
- Dan OrlovskyGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Orlovsky said that even without Puka Nacua the Rams would find a way to beat the Giants on Monday night, though he thought the Giants would keep it within a touchdown.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 71Dubin picked the Rams to beat the Giants 27-17 on Monday night.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsHit · 86Prisco picked the Rams to beat the Giants 30-14.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 69Dajani picked the Rams to beat the Giants 30-21.
- John BreechScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 55Breech expects Caleb Williams to return quickly from his hamstring injury, at the latest by Week 4 against the Jets or Week 5 against the Packers, and he picked the Rams to beat the Giants on Monday night. He also floated the Saints as a potential surprise team this season.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.