What's Wright with Nick Wright · Oct 3, 2025

Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. He also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.

“I do not think the forty nine ers have a chance tonight.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

12 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Depth Chart Calls Tyquan Thornton Kansas City ChiefsOct 3, 2025
“all of a sudden, you have Thornton as your number three, Hollywood is your four, Juju is depth”
Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 100-29.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
KC
skill:
-29.67
player:
Tyquan Thornton
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
5
actual slot:
5
difficulty:
1.78
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
3
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Tetairoa McMillan Los Angeles RamsOct 3, 2025
“he's certainly demons has to be in your top five. Certainly.”
Scored 25a naive guess scored 0+44.5 skill
How this was scored
skill:
44.5
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
25
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
receiving yards
difficulty:
1.78
naive basis:
no prior season — the startable tier at WR
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
36
actual finish:
14
weeks left when called:
14
predicted finish:
5
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Justin JeffersonOct 3, 2025
“I still think Jefferson is the best receiver in football”
Scored 16.67a naive guess scored 25-14.83 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-14.83
player:
Justin Jefferson
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
16.67
baseline:
25
position:
WR
ranked by:
receiving yards
difficulty:
1.78
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
2
actual finish:
11
weeks left when called:
14
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Marquise Brown Kansas City ChiefsOct 3, 2025
“you have Thornton as your number three, Hollywood is your four, Juju is depth”
Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 58.33+44.5 skill
How this was scored
club:
KC
skill:
44.5
player:
Marquise Brown
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
58.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
7
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
1.78
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
4
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Baltimore RavensOct 3, 2025
“if we just play this out and I think they are going to win this weekend... I think they could win with with Cooper Rush... if you just run Dereck Henry thirty five times, I think you can beat up flailing Texans team”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
44-10
skill:
0
they picked:
BAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive pick:
BAL
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Pittsburgh SteelersOct 3, 2025
“we're saying, the Steelers are going to be in”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
PIT
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Buffalo BillsOct 3, 2025
“the Bills are going to be in under this scenario”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Kansas City ChiefsOct 3, 2025
“I would be very surprised if Kansas City can't go to Jacksonville and figure out how to get a win against a really good Jags team... But I don't think they're gonna win.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-178 skill
How this was scored
won:
JAX
score:
28-31
skill:
-178
they picked:
KC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Kansas City ChiefsOct 3, 2025
“We're gonna put the Chiefs and the Chargers in”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Los Angeles ChargersOct 3, 2025
“We're gonna put the Chiefs and the Chargers in”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Indianapolis ColtsOct 3, 2025
“let's just say the Colts keep doing what they're doing and they're in those five teams”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-178 skill
How this was scored
team:
IND
skill:
-178
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
14
Think this is wrong?
Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles RamsOct 3, 2025
“I do not think the forty nine ers have a chance tonight. I think the Rams are excellent”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?