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A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.
99.63% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
hits
misses
Takes in each band
Everyone writing under this banner, pooled into the numbers above. Counted by article, with a paginated series counting once — the same rule used for an individual, from the published methodology.
Teams and players where FantasyPros’s writers keep landing outside the room: at least twice, a call published under this banner sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is the banner’s standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle. Computed, never chosen.
Outside the room in 13 of 14 articles (1 higher, 12 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 13 of 16 articles (1 higher, 12 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
851–875 of 3,315
15 / 3,315
graded
3,300 still pending
Outside the room in 10 of 11 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 10 of 10 articles (2 higher, 8 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 10 of 16 articles (1 higher, 9 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 10 of 17 articles (3 higher, 7 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost
Last season's RB1, who scored 17 total touchdowns and eclipsed 2,100 total yards, is someone I'm shying away from... I'll side with history on this one and fade McCaffrey at his current draft cost.
Deshaun Watson to be 1st on the depth chart
Deshaun Watson has been pegged as the starter for Cleveland, but who knows how long he'll be able to hold off Shedeur Sanders.
Harold Fannin Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (ranked as the TE6)
Despite all of these shortcomings, Fannin is still ranked as the TE6, and I'm running to the hills at that price range.
Jaylen Waddle to be 1st on the depth chart
Waddle immediately slides in as the alpha receiver for the Broncos offense
Courtland Sutton to fall short of his draft cost
I'm worried that with a severe reduction in targets, Sutton will be unable to convert looks into production.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to fall short of his draft cost (currently being selected as an RB3 in most formats)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is currently being selected as an RB3 in most formats... My issue with Croskey-Merritt is his distinct lack of upside
Tyler Shough to fall short of his draft cost
Other analysts have pegged Tyler Shough as a true breakout at the position for 2026, but I'm skeptical... I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but I just don't see it.
Jayden Daniels to fall short of his draft cost
Jayden Daniels appears on my list for several reasons... I'm worried that fantasy managers will be stuck sinking significant draft capital in a player who will end up injured again.
Patrick Mahomes to outplay his draft cost (double‑digit rounds)
The market has officially dipped on Mahomes, and it is handing you a historic discount. When a generational talent slips into the double‑digit rounds, you do not hesitate and you pull the trigger.
Patrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
MarShawn Lloyd to outplay his draft cost (the late rounds)
Drafting Lloyd in the late rounds carries no real risk because your starting lineup is already set, so any production he gives you is a net positive.
MarShawn LloydGreen Bay Packers
Dalton Kincaid to outplay his draft cost (outside the top 100 picks)
Securing this kind of stability outside the top 100 picks gives you a major advantage, and you’re essentially getting a TE2 at a discount.
K.C. Concepcion to outplay his draft cost (the double‑digit rounds)
grabbing a rookie who thrives there in the double‑digit rounds is an easy way to lock in a weekly starter before the season begins
K.C. ConcepcionCleveland Browns
Puka Nacua to fall short of his draft cost (the first round)
I have no qualms passing on Nacua in the first round for players such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, James Cook, etc.
Josh Allen to fall short of his draft cost (pick 25)
I am also probably passing on Allen at his current value of pick 25.
MarShawn Lloyd to outplay his draft cost (RB30)
Lloyd will probably be drafted much earlier than his current ADP... I love Lloyd's ADP right now.
MarShawn LloydGreen Bay Packers
Travis Kelce to fall short of his draft cost (outside the top 100)
Kelce is a bye-week fill-in who you hope gets in the end zone. I'm letting someone else draft Kelce.
Travis KelceKansas City Chiefs
Bhayshul Tuten to outplay his draft cost (a borderline top-60 overall cost)
Tuten has the talent to blow past that in 2026, and at a borderline top-60 overall cost, that is a bet absolutely worth taking.
Bhayshul Tuten to be 1st on the depth chart
Bhayshul Tuten has the opportunity to emerge as the clear RB1 in a Jacksonville offense that should be exceptional in 2026.
Davante Adams to outplay his draft cost (his current ADP of 56)
Davante Adams is a steal at his current ADP of 56, offering low-end WR1 production at a discounted WR2 cost.
K.C. Concepcion to outplay his draft cost (current FantasyPros ADP remains around 132)
KC Concepcion is the player I am targeting most because we rank him 79th overall while his current FantasyPros ADP remains around 132.
K.C. ConcepcionCleveland Browns
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (his current ADP of RB3 and 5th overall in half-PPR)
I'm avoiding San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey at his current ADP of RB3 and 5th overall in half-PPR.
Christian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (WR13 and pick 33)
Rashee Rice at WR13 and pick 33 makes me nervous... Rice is a risky pick right now, and I would much rather have safer options in this range.
Jonah Coleman to outplay his draft cost (a real-time ADP of 148)
The 145th overall player on FantasyPros' ADP list currently has a real-time ADP of 148... Coleman is an ideal and priority stash in drafts this year.
Jonathan Taylor to fall short of his draft cost (the RB4/ECR6 player in redraft leagues)
Jonathan Taylor is a great running back, but very risky as the RB4/ECR6 player in redraft leagues... he will not be on any of my redraft teams.
Jonathan TaylorIndianapolis Colts
DeVonta Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
With A.J. Brown traded to New England, Smith is now the clear WR1 in Philadelphia
DeVonta SmithPhiladelphia Eagles