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Peter Schrager· Jan 11, 2025

Reviewing his preseason picks, Schrager refused to back off: he still has the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and doubled down on the Packers, who entered the playoffs as the NFC's seventh seed, representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. He also ranked the top 10 rookie performances of 2024 and named Jared Verse his Defensive Rookie of the Year.

“I am not backing away from my Super Bowl pick... I got the Chiefs winning at all this year.”

said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 conference champion and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Conference ChampionsGreen Bay PackersJan 11, 2025

    Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl

    “The NFC will be represented by... Jordan Love, Matt Lafleur and the Green Bay Packers... I think they go on the wild ride right now. And I'm gonna double down. Packers to the super Bowl.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    champions:
    PHI,KC
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

    Think this is wrong?

  • Super Bowl PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 11, 2025

    Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl

    “I am not backing away from my Super Bowl pick is usually pretty good. I got the Chiefs winning at all this year. We'll see if that happens.”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    50
    champion:
    PHI
    runner up:
    KC
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksJared VerseLos Angeles RamsJan 11, 2025

    Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

    “that award is going to go to Los Angeles this year with number seven on the list, and that's Jared First... Jared Vers upfront was one of the reasons he is my defensive Rookie of the Year. We'll see how that plays out at NFL Honors.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    defensive_rookie_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was Will Anderson Jr., who won it the year before
    skill:
    100
    player:
    Jared Verse
    season:
    2024
    winner:
    Jared Verse
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More conference champions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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