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Peter Schrager· Mar 1, 2025

Schrager laid out his top 10 prospects entering the 2025 combine, with Travis Hunter first, Abdul Carter second and Tyler Warren third, and attached draft-range calls to several of them — Will Johnson in the first round, Mason Graham a top-five pick, Ashton Jeanty a first-rounder, Tyler Warren not escaping the top ten, and Cam Ward a top-five to top-ten pick who will start as a rookie.

“I've got Travis Hunter as my number one prospect out of Colorado.”

said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

8 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 position order call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 82.2 out of 100, against 50.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
a first round pick (picks 1–32)They said
6What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

8 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Mock Draft PicksAshton JeantyMar 1, 2025

    Ashton Jeanty to be picked “a first round pick” (picks 1–32)

    “Ashton gent is one of the top running backs in this draft and will obviously be a first round pick”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ashton Jeanty
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    6
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    a first round pick (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Top Player ListsMar 1, 2025

    “let's get started with the top ten combined prospects going into the combine. It's my list... It's number ten Michigan defensive back Will Johnson... Number nine is tight end Colston Loveland... my number eight prospect is Arizona wide receiver Tatoroa McMillan... cam Ward is my seventh overall prospect... that is Jalen Walker... Mason Graham is the number five prospect... number four... Ashton gent... Number three... Mister Tyler Warren... Number two, I've got... Abdul Carter... I've got Travis Hunter as my number one prospect”

    Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 50+33.33 skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    33.33
    placed:
    6
    season:
    2025
    players:
    10
    accuracy:
    66.67
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    CB 2: 100, LB 2: 0, TE 2: 100
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Order CallsTetairoa McMillanMar 1, 2025

    Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st wide receiver off the board

    “He is my number one wide receiver in this draft.”

    Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 13.29+57.42 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    naming one of the 31 at random averages 13.29
    skill:
    57.42
    player:
    Tetairoa McMillan
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    13.29
    position:
    wide receiver
    class size:
    31
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    2
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Depth Chart CallsCam WardMar 1, 2025

    Cam Ward to be 1st on the depth chart

    “We'll be an NFL starter next year”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    TEN
    skill:
    16.67
    player:
    Cam Ward
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    QB
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    passing yards
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksMason GrahamMar 1, 2025

    Mason Graham to be picked “a top five pick” (picks 1–5)

    “He is a top five pick and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes even higher than that.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Mason Graham
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    a top five pick (picks 1–5)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksTyler WarrenMar 1, 2025

    Tyler Warren to be picked “as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten” (picks 1–5)

    “I think he might go as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten.”

    Close · 68Scored 67.71a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Tyler Warren
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    67.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    14
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    67.71
    predicted pick:
    as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten (picks 1–5)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksWill JohnsonMar 1, 2025

    Will Johnson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “Look for him to go in the first round, of course, in April's draft.”

    Close · 52Scored 52.21a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Will Johnson
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    52.21
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    47
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    52.21
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksCam WardMar 1, 2025

    Cam Ward to be picked “a top five, top ten pick” (picks 1–5)

    “cam Ward great prospect. We'll be an NFL starter next year and will be a top five, top ten pick, no doubt.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Cam Ward
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    a top five, top ten pick (picks 1–5)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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