Peter Schrager · Mar 1, 2025

Schrager laid out his top 10 prospects entering the 2025 combine, with Travis Hunter first, Abdul Carter second and Tyler Warren third, and attached draft-range calls to several of them — Will Johnson in the first round, Mason Graham a top-five pick, Ashton Jeanty a first-rounder, Tyler Warren not escaping the top ten, and Cam Ward a top-five to top-ten pick who will start as a rookie.

“I've got Travis Hunter as my number one prospect out of Colorado.”

said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →

8 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Top Player ListsMar 1, 2025
“let's get started with the top ten combined prospects going into the combine. It's my list... It's number ten Michigan defensive back Will Johnson... Number nine is tight end Colston Loveland... my number eight prospect is Arizona wide receiver Tatoroa McMillan... cam Ward is my seventh overall prospect... that is Jalen Walker... Mason Graham is the number five prospect... number four... Ashton gent... Number three... Mister Tyler Warren... Number two, I've got... Abdul Carter... I've got Travis Hunter as my number one prospect”
Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 50+33.33 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
33.33
placed:
6
season:
2025
players:
10
accuracy:
66.67
baseline:
50
by position:
CB 2: 100, LB 2: 0, TE 2: 100
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Position Order CallsMar 1, 2025
“He is my number one wide receiver in this draft.”
Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 13.29+57.42 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
naming one of the 31 at random averages 13.29
skill:
57.42
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
13.29
position:
wide receiver
class size:
31
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsMar 1, 2025
“We'll be an NFL starter next year”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
TEN
skill:
16.67
player:
Cam Ward
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksMar 1, 2025
“Ashton gent is one of the top running backs in this draft and will obviously be a first round pick”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ashton Gent
season:
2025
zero at:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2025; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
a first round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksMar 1, 2025
“He is a top five pick and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes even higher than that.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Mason Graham
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
a top five pick (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksMar 1, 2025
“I think he might go as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten.”
Scored 67.71a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Tyler Warren
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
67.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
67.71
predicted pick:
as high as top five. He will not escape the top ten (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksMar 1, 2025
“Look for him to go in the first round, of course, in April's draft.”
Scored 52.21a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Will Johnson
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
52.21
baseline:
50
actual pick:
47
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
52.21
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksMar 1, 2025
“cam Ward great prospect. We'll be an NFL starter next year and will be a top five, top ten pick, no doubt.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Cam Ward
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
a top five, top ten pick (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?