John Middlekauff · Jul 31, 2025

In a long mailbag, Middlekauff picked the 49ers to win the NFC West, said he'd lean toward Matt Stafford starting Week 1 despite real concern about the elbow, stuck with Daniel Jones as the Colts' starting quarterback over Anthony Richardson, expected Omarion Hampton to start and put up big rookie numbers with Offensive Rookie of the Year on the table, and thought Denver could win 11-12 games.

“I don't think it's outrageous to go offensive rookie of the year.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

8 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Depth Chart CallsJul 31, 2025
“So Hampton was gonna start over him regardless... So I think Hardball would ride Hampton like a like secretariat”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAC
skill:
-16.67
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsJul 31, 2025
“does Matt Stafford start Week one? I would lean yes, even though I have no more information than anyone else”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
LAR
skill:
0
player:
Matthew Stafford
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Award PicksJul 31, 2025
“I don't think it's outrageous to go offensive rookie of the year... So I would say offensive Rookie of the Year would be on the table for sure.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
winner:
Tetairoa McMillan
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsJul 31, 2025
“I think the Bronx is gonna be pretty good. And if he's good and you have an elite defense, they're gonna win eleven twelve games.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 5+70 skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
naive:
9.25
skill:
70
what happened:
14
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
5
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsJul 31, 2025
“I will stick with what I said. I think Daniel Jones gonna be the starting quarterback.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
IND
skill:
0
player:
Daniel Jones
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersJul 31, 2025
“Could Hampton be a thirteen hundred yard rusher and have ten plus touchdowns because he's it's pretty freaking good.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 39-78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
378.78
skill:
-78
what happened:
545
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
39
predicted:
1300
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
378.78
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersJul 31, 2025
“Could Hampton be a thirteen hundred yard rusher and have ten plus touchdowns”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 72.63-145.26 skill
How this was scored
naive:
4.63
skill:
-145.26
what happened:
4
player:
Omarion Hampton
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
72.63
predicted:
10
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.63
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersJul 31, 2025
“I want the Niners to win the division... I'm gonna I was gonna bet on the Niners to win the division anyway.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?