Ayrton Ostley· Apr 17, 2026
Ausley walked through his final seven-round mock draft, having the 49ers take Utah offensive tackle Caleb Lomu at No. 27, Peter Woods to Houston at 28, TJ Parker to Kansas City at 29, Zion Young to the Chargers at 30, Arvel Reese to Arizona at 3, Dallas trading up to 8, Denver taking Mason Thomas at 58, the 49ers taking Malachi Lawrence at 62 and VJ Payne at 133.
“For the in the first round, number 27 overall, the San Francisco forty niners take offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, Utah youths.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On 49ers (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 9 mock draft picks and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
9 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 54.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room.
Their call against what happened
overall pick28They said
29What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksPeter WoodsHouston TexansApr 17, 2026
Peter Woods to be picked at number 28
“you have Peter Woods mocked one pick after Caleb Lomu. You got him going number 28 for the Houston Texans.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 80 against a shuffle’s 50+30 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 30
- player:
- Peter Woods
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 29
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 80
- Mock Draft PicksEmmanuel PregnonNew York GiantsApr 17, 2026
Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 37
“He has him marked number thirty seventh overall to the New York Giants.”
Miss · 11Scored 10.98 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 78.57 against a shuffle’s 50+28.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 28.57
- player:
- Emmanuel Pregnon
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 10.98
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 88
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 10.98
- predicted pick:
- 37
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 78.57
- Mock Draft PicksT.J. ParkerKansas City ChiefsApr 17, 2026
T.J. Parker to be picked at number 29
“and then his teammate, TJ Parker, 29 to the Kansas City Chiefs”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 78.57 against a shuffle’s 50+28.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 28.57
- player:
- T.J. Parker
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 35
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 29
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 78.57
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseArizona CardinalsApr 17, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“the Arbel Reese move, which is who you have mocked to the Cardinals at three”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 78.57 against a shuffle’s 50+28.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 28.57
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 78.57
- Mock Draft PicksZion YoungLos Angeles ChargersApr 17, 2026
Zion Young to be picked at number 30
“And you got Zion Young from Missouri, Dwayne's guy, going to the Los Angeles Chargers at 30.”
Close · 52Scored 52.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 78.57 against a shuffle’s 50+28.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 28.57
- player:
- Zion Young
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 52.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 45
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 52.21
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 78.57
Malachi Lawrence to be picked at number 62
“40 move back to 62 overall and take edge Malachi Lawrence out of UCF.”
Miss · 18Scored 18.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 78.57 against a shuffle’s 50+28.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 28.57
- player:
- Malachi Lawrence
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 18.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 23
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 18.46
- predicted pick:
- 62
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 78.57
- Mock Draft PicksVictor PayneSan Francisco 49ersApr 17, 2026
Victor Payne to be picked at number 133
“you have them at one thirty three taking VJ Payne out of Kansas State”
Miss · 2Scored 1.63 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 78.57 against a shuffle’s 50+28.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 28.57
- player:
- Victor Payne
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 1.63
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 228
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 1.63
- predicted pick:
- 133
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 78.57
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuSan Francisco 49ersApr 17, 2026
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27
“For the in the first round, number 27 overall, the San Francisco forty niners take offensive tackle Caleb Lomu, Utah youths.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 78.57 against a shuffle’s 50+28.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 28.57
- player:
- Caleb Lomu
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 28
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 78.57
- Mock Draft PicksR Mason ThomasDenver BroncosApr 17, 2026
R Mason Thomas to be picked at number 58
“I have the San Francisco forty niners trading out of number 58 overall because the Denver Broncos hop on the phone and go, hey. We want Edge, our Mason Thomas out of Oklahoma.”
Close · 46Scored 45.85 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 78.57 against a shuffle’s 50+28.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 28.57
- player:
- R Mason Thomas
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 45.85
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 40
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 45.85
- predicted pick:
- 58
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 78.57
- Team Draft Slot CallsDallas CowboysApr 17, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to pick at number 8
“I had them trading up to number eight with New Orleans to do to get that done.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Thomas MartinezRoster Spot Calls · Patrick HerbertMiss · 0Martinez projects the Chargers' starting lineups on offense and defense for their Week 3 game at Buffalo, with injuries forcing several changes — Oronde Gadsden II at tight end, Trevor Penning at left guard, Jamaree Caldwell at defensive tackle and RJ Mickens at safety — while expecting Ladd McConkey to play and Marquez Valdez-Scantling to debut.
- Tyler SullivanRoster Spot Calls · Jake HaenerMiss · 0Sullivan expects the Giants, thin at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury, to elevate Jake Haener from the practice squad for Week 3.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Reddy StewardMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Brian PeacockRoster Spot Calls · Sebastian ValdezMiss · 0Peacock lays out his projected 53-man roster for the 49ers, position by position: three specialists, three quarterbacks (including Curtis Rourke), five running backs, six receivers (cutting Christian Kirk), three tight ends (cutting Braden Willis), nine offensive linemen, ten defensive linemen (with Mykel Williams on PUP), five linebackers, six cornerbacks and four safeties. He also predicts a new player will take center snaps in preseason week three.
- Tom JensenRoster Spot Calls · Sebastian ValdezMiss · 0Jensen projects the 49ers' final 53-man roster ahead of the August 30 cutdown, naming a long list of players he expects to be released outright, another group he expects to be cut and return on the practice squad ("boomerang cuts"), and three borderline players (Jordan James, Jacob Cowing, James Thompson Jr.) he believes San Francisco will keep.
- Chad JensenRoster Spot Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0Jensen expects the Broncos to sign fullback Adam Prentice to the active 53-man roster early the following week rather than risk losing him on waivers, with a corresponding cut coming Monday. He also anticipates Denver will clear a roster spot for Jonah Coleman once the running back's four-game IR stint ends around Week 7.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Makai LemonHit · 96Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Kayden McDonaldClose · 48He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.