Ross Jackson· Jan 14, 2026
In a seven-round Saints mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, Ross Jackson has Ohio State safety Caleb Downs falling to New Orleans at No. 8 overall after two quarterbacks go 1-2, then lays out picks at 42, 73, round four, 137, 148, 170 and 189.
“the decision right off the bat... is Caleb Downs, the Ohio State safety at an array overall”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast) · read the original →
17 checkable claims — 17 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 20 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
12 of 17 have settled so far, averaging 57.6 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
17 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyJan 14, 2026
David Bailey to be picked “surefire top 10, top 15 selection” (picks 1–10)
“tied with surefire top 10, top 15 selection in this year's draft David Bailey out of Texas Tech”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- surefire top 10, top 15 selection (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveJan 14, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “off the board within the top seven selections” (picks 1–7)
“running back out of Notre Dame, Jeremiah Love... off the board early within the top seven selections”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- off the board within the top seven selections (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksTacario DavisNew Orleans SaintsJan 14, 2026
Tacario Davis to be picked at number 170
“Then in round five, I picked one seventy. Went one seven zero, I went with Washington corner, Takario Davis”
Miss · 1Scored 1.43 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Tacario Davis
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 1.43
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 72
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 1.43
- predicted pick:
- 170
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonJan 14, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked “off the board within the top seven selections” (picks 1–7)
“no Jordan Tyson nor Jeremiah Love on the board for the offensive side either”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- off the board within the top seven selections (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksTanner KoziolNew Orleans SaintsJan 14, 2026
Tanner Koziol to be picked at number 189
“we closed out this draft with... sixth round steal at pick one eighty nine with Houston tight end Tanner, Koziel”
Miss · 34Scored 33.86 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Tanner Koziol
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 33.86
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 164
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 33.86
- predicted pick:
- 189
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksKaytron AllenNew Orleans SaintsJan 14, 2026
Kaytron Allen to be picked at number 137
“The other selection at round in round four, just a few picks later at one thirty seven... We're gonna go with Penn State running back, Caitron Allen”
Miss · 11Scored 11.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Kaytron Allen
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 11.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 187
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 11.46
- predicted pick:
- 137
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksNadame TuckerNew Orleans SaintsJan 14, 2026
Nadame Tucker to be picked at number 148
“In round five, pick one forty eight, I went with Western Michigan edge rusher Nadame Tucker”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Nadame Tucker
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with LAC
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 148
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNew Orleans SaintsJan 14, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 8
“the decision right off the bat... is Caleb Downs, the Ohio State safety at an array overall... You draft him number eight overall”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseJan 14, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked “off the board within the top seven selections” (picks 1–7)
“Also off the board were Ohio State linebacker, a Arbel Reese”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- off the board within the top seven selections (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainJan 14, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked “off the board within the top seven selections” (picks 1–7)
“Miami edge rusher, Reuben Bain junior... off the board early within the top seven selections”
Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 70.71
- predicted pick:
- off the board within the top seven selections (picks 1–7)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 42
“Let's jump real quick to pick 42, which is in the second round... So I went with Oregon offensive lineman, Emmanuel Pregnon”
Miss · 14Scored 13.63 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Emmanuel Pregnon
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 13.63
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 88
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 13.63
- predicted pick:
- 42
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
Zachariah Branch to be picked at number 73
“Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, who I took in round three at pick number 73”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 74.29 against a shuffle’s 50+24.29 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 24.29
- player:
- Zachariah Branch
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 79
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 73
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 74.29
- Mock Draft PicksElijah SarrattJan 14, 2026
Elijah Sarratt to be picked “off the board before pick 42”
“both Elijah Sarat out of Indiana as well as Chris Bell out of Louisville were off the board”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksChris BellJan 14, 2026
Chris Bell to be picked “off the board before pick 42”
“both Elijah Sarat out of Indiana as well as Chris Bell out of Louisville were off the board”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksDante MooreNew York JetsJan 14, 2026
Dante Moore to be picked “picks one and two overall”
“Fernando Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders as well as Dante Moore going to the New York Jets”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksTim KeenanNew Orleans SaintsJan 14, 2026
Tim Keenan to be picked “round four”
“In round four, I went with two selections here. First of which a defensive tackle, I went with Tim Keenan the third”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked “picks one and two overall”
“both of the top quarterbacks end up flying off the board at picks one and two overall with, Fernando Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders as well as Dante Moore going to the New York Jets”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 33On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
- Dan BeyerGame Outcome Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0For his Week 3 survivor pick, he took the Saints to beat the Raiders at home, saying he doesn't see Las Vegas staying unbeaten.
- Darrion GrayScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 45Predicted the Saints beat the Raiders 27-17 at home.
- John HendricksScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 43Predicted a lower-scoring Saints win over the Raiders, 24-19, with the defense carrying them.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.