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Peter Schrager· Jan 7, 2025

Schrager ranked the AFC wild card teams by likelihood of a January run — Chargers first, Broncos second, Steelers third — and predicted the Chargers beat the Texans while the Ravens beat the Steelers. He also stood by his preseason Packers-to-the-Super-Bowl pick and his Chiefs Super Bowl winner pick, and forecast a roughly 16-13 Ravens win.

“I think the Chargers are the most likely to go on a run based on the performance we have seen from Justin Herbert of late.”

said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

7 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 power rankings, 1 conference champion, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 49.8 out of 100, against 63.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensJan 7, 2025

    Baltimore Ravens 16 — Steelers 13

    “The final score is gonna be something like sixteen to thirteen, and everyone assumes it's gonna be the Ravens.”

    Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 72.09+1.72 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    14-28
    skill:
    1.72
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    73.81
    baseline:
    72.09
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    14
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.28
    predicted margin:
    3

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  • Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensJan 7, 2025

    Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers

    “They've got a tough one this week. Obviously they're going into Baltimore. I don't see them winning that game.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BAL
    score:
    14-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BAL
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Conference ChampionsGreen Bay PackersJan 7, 2025

    Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl

    “I'm gonna double down. Packers to the super Bowl.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    champions:
    PHI,KC
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no

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  • Power RankingsJan 7, 2025

    “So I go Chargers, Broncos, and then the Steelers.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    100
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersJan 7, 2025

    Los Angeles Chargers to beat Texans

    “the Chargers, I think will beat the Texans”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    HOU
    score:
    12-32
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    LAC
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

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  • Power RankingsJan 7, 2025

    “I think the Packers, Vikings, and then Commanders. If you're asking me to rank the three of the NFC wildcard teams”

    Miss · 25Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    25
    baseline:
    25
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0

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  • Super Bowl PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 7, 2025

    Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl

    “I am not backing away from my super Bowl pick is usually pretty good. I got the Chiefs winning it all this year.”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    50
    champion:
    PHI
    runner up:
    KC
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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