Peter Schrager · Jan 7, 2025
Schrager ranked the AFC wild card teams by likelihood of a January run — Chargers first, Broncos second, Steelers third — and predicted the Chargers beat the Texans while the Ravens beat the Steelers. He also stood by his preseason Packers-to-the-Super-Bowl pick and his Chiefs Super Bowl winner pick, and forecast a roughly 16-13 Ravens win.
“I think the Chargers are the most likely to go on a run based on the performance we have seen from Justin Herbert of late.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims from this
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Power RankingsJan 7, 2025
“So I go Chargers, Broncos, and then the Steelers.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles ChargersJan 7, 2025
“the Chargers, I think will beat the Texans”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 12-32
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Power RankingsJan 7, 2025
“I think the Packers, Vikings, and then Commanders. If you're asking me to rank the three of the NFC wildcard teams”
Scored 25a naive guess scored 25+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Super Bowl PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 7, 2025
“I am not backing away from my super Bowl pick is usually pretty good. I got the Chiefs winning it all this year.”
Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- champion:
- PHI
- runner up:
- KC
- naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensJan 7, 2025
“The final score is gonna be something like sixteen to thirteen, and everyone assumes it's gonna be the Ravens.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Conference ChampionsGreen Bay PackersJan 7, 2025
“I'm gonna double down. Packers to the super Bowl.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensJan 7, 2025
“They've got a tough one this week. Obviously they're going into Baltimore. I don't see them winning that game.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.