Ryan Reynolds· Sep 5, 2023

Reynolds predicted win-loss records for all 32 teams, playoff seeding for both conferences, several league-leader player predictions, and picked the Bengals to beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

“Super Bowl Prediction: Bengals over Cowboys”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Jul 16, 2024) →

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.

66 checkable claims — 32 season win totals, 14 playoff picks, 8 division winners, 6 positional finishes, 2 conference champions, 2 seeding, byes and home field, 1 award pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 38 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 66 have settled, averaging 47.7 out of 100, against 55.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

66 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Division Winners Cincinnati BengalsSep 5, 2023
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
“AFC North Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6 ... 4. Bengals”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
CIN
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CIN
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Seeding, Byes and Home Field San Francisco 49ersSep 5, 2023
San Francisco 49ers to take the top seed
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 1. 49ers 2. Cowboys 3. Saints 4. Lions 5. Seahawks 6. Eagles 7. Falcons”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
they picked:
SF
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
checked as:
the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
actual tier:
bye
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (host)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
1
claimed tier:
bye
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners San Francisco 49ersSep 5, 2023
San Francisco 49ers to win the division
“NFC West San Francisco 49ers: 12-5 ... 1. 49ers”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
SF
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Jacksonville JaguarsSep 5, 2023
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5 ... 1. Jaguars”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
JAX
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Kansas City ChiefsSep 5, 2023
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“AFC West Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5 ... 2. Chiefs”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
KC
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Detroit LionsSep 5, 2023
Detroit Lions to win the division
“NFC North Detroit Lions: 10-7 ... 4. Lions”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
DET
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
MIN
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Conference Champions Cincinnati BengalsSep 5, 2023
Cincinnati Bengals to reach the Super Bowl
“AFC Super Bowl Representative: Cincinnati Bengals”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
they picked:
CIN
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champions:
KC,SF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
Conference Champions Dallas CowboysSep 5, 2023
Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl
“NFC Super Bowl Representative: Dallas Cowboys”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
they picked:
DAL
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champions:
KC,SF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners New Orleans SaintsSep 5, 2023
New Orleans Saints to win the division
“NFC South New Orleans Saints: 11-6 ... 3. Saints”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
NO
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners New York JetsSep 5, 2023
New York Jets to win the division
“AFC East New York Jets: 12-5 ... AFC Playoff Seeding: ... 3. Jets”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Dallas CowboysSep 5, 2023
Dallas Cowboys to win the division
“NFC East Dallas Cowboys: 12-5 ... 2. Cowboys”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
DAL
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Seeding, Byes and Home Field Jacksonville JaguarsSep 5, 2023
Jacksonville Jaguars to take the top seed
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 1. Jaguars 2. Chiefs 3. Jets 4. Bengals 5. Bills 6. Ravens 7. Chargers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
checked as:
the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
actual tier:
missed the playoffs
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (host)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
1
claimed tier:
bye
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Micah Parsons Dallas CowboysSep 5, 2023
Micah Parsons to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks
“Micah Parsons leads the league in sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-16.67
player:
Micah Parsons
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
linebackers
ranked by:
sacks
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
4
actual finish:
3
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Award Picks Micah Parsons Dallas CowboysSep 5, 2023
Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
“Micah Parsons leads the league in sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Nick Bosa, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Micah Parsons
season:
2023
winner:
Myles Garrett
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Ja'Marr Chase Cincinnati BengalsSep 5, 2023
Ja'Marr Chase to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving tds
“Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in receiving touchdowns.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Ja'Marr Chase
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
receiving tds
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
7
actual finish:
23
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Joe Burrow Cincinnati BengalsSep 5, 2023
Joe Burrow to finish top 1 at his position, by passing tds
“Burrow leads the league in touchdown passes.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Joe Burrow
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing tds
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
3
actual finish:
22
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Tampa Bay BuccaneersSep 5, 2023
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 3 wins
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-14”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 85-170 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
8.25
skill:
-170
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
85
predicted:
3
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Cincinnati BengalsSep 5, 2023
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 4. Bengals”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Denver BroncosSep 5, 2023
Denver Broncos to finish with 8 wins
“Denver Broncos: 8-9”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
naive:
6.75
skill:
50
what happened:
8
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New England PatriotsSep 5, 2023
New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins
“New England Patriots: 7-10”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 15+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
NE
naive:
8.25
skill:
50
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
15
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Las Vegas RaidersSep 5, 2023
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 4 wins
“Las Vegas Raiders: 4-13”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 85-130 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
naive:
7.25
skill:
-130
what happened:
8
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
85
predicted:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Buffalo BillsSep 5, 2023
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 5. Bills”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Los Angeles ChargersSep 5, 2023
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 7. Chargers”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Dallas CowboysSep 5, 2023
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 12 wins
“Dallas Cowboys: 12-5”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 65+70 skill
How this was scored
team:
DAL
naive:
10.25
skill:
70
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
65
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Kansas City ChiefsSep 5, 2023
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
“Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 95-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
95
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Baltimore RavensSep 5, 2023
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 6. Ravens”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Cleveland BrownsSep 5, 2023
Cleveland Browns to finish with 9 wins
“Cleveland Browns: 9-8”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 35+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
CLE
naive:
7.75
skill:
50
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
35
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Dallas CowboysSep 5, 2023
Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 2. Cowboys”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
DAL
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks New Orleans SaintsSep 5, 2023
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 3. Saints”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NO
skill:
-200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Miami DolphinsSep 5, 2023
Miami Dolphins to finish with 10 wins
“Miami Dolphins: 10-7”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 55+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
MIA
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
55
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Kansas City ChiefsSep 5, 2023
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 2. Chiefs”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Philadelphia EaglesSep 5, 2023
Philadelphia Eagles to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 6. Eagles”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Nick Chubb Cleveland BrownsSep 5, 2023
Nick Chubb to finish top 1 at his position, by rushing yards
“Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing yards.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Nick Chubb
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
RB
ranked by:
rushing yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
3
actual finish:
73
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Seattle SeahawksSep 5, 2023
Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 5. Seahawks”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
SEA
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks San Francisco 49ersSep 5, 2023
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 1. 49ers”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Atlanta FalconsSep 5, 2023
Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 7. Falcons”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
skill:
-200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Detroit LionsSep 5, 2023
Detroit Lions to make the playoffs
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 4. Lions”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
skill:
200
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Detroit LionsSep 5, 2023
Detroit Lions to finish with 10 wins
“Detroit Lions: 10-7”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 35+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
35
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Arizona CardinalsSep 5, 2023
Arizona Cardinals to finish with 2 wins
“Arizona Cardinals: 2-15”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 55+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
ARI
naive:
6.25
skill:
10
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
55
predicted:
2
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Washington CommandersSep 5, 2023
Washington Commanders to finish with 6 wins
“Washington Commanders: 6-11”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 15+90 skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
naive:
8.25
skill:
90
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
15
predicted:
6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Philadelphia EaglesSep 5, 2023
Philadelphia Eagles to finish with 11 wins
“Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
naive:
11.25
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Indianapolis ColtsSep 5, 2023
Indianapolis Colts to finish with 4 wins
“Indianapolis Colts: 4-13”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 45-90 skill
How this was scored
team:
IND
naive:
6.25
skill:
-90
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
45
predicted:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl Picks Cincinnati BengalsSep 5, 2023
Cincinnati Bengals to win the Super Bowl
“Super Bowl Prediction: Bengals over Cowboys”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
they picked:
CIN
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champion:
KC
runner up:
SF
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals San Francisco 49ersSep 5, 2023
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 12 wins
“San Francisco 49ers: 12-5”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
naive:
10.75
skill:
50
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit LionsSep 5, 2023
Amon-Ra St. Brown to finish top 1 at his position, by receptions
“Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the league in receptions.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 83.33+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Amon-Ra St. Brown
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
ranked by:
receptions
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
5
actual finish:
3
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Jacksonville JaguarsSep 5, 2023
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 1. Jaguars”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New York JetsSep 5, 2023
New York Jets to finish with 12 wins
“New York Jets: 12-5”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 85-170 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
naive:
7.75
skill:
-170
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
85
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Chicago BearsSep 5, 2023
Chicago Bears to finish with 8 wins
“Chicago Bears: 8-9”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
CHI
naive:
5.75
skill:
10
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
75
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New Orleans SaintsSep 5, 2023
New Orleans Saints to finish with 11 wins
“New Orleans Saints: 11-6”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
NO
naive:
7.75
skill:
-30
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Minnesota VikingsSep 5, 2023
Minnesota Vikings to finish with 8 wins
“Minnesota Vikings: 8-9”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 25+110 skill
How this was scored
team:
MIN
naive:
10.75
skill:
110
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
25
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Carolina PanthersSep 5, 2023
Carolina Panthers to finish with 6 wins
“Carolina Panthers: 6-11”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
How this was scored
team:
CAR
naive:
7.75
skill:
40
what happened:
2
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
0
predicted:
6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Jacksonville JaguarsSep 5, 2023
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 12 wins
“Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 95-110 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
naive:
8.75
skill:
-110
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
95
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Los Angeles ChargersSep 5, 2023
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 11 wins
“Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 15-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
naive:
9.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
5
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
15
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New York GiantsSep 5, 2023
New York Giants to finish with 8 wins
“New York Giants: 8-9”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
naive:
8.75
skill:
30
what happened:
6
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
45
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Tennessee TitansSep 5, 2023
Tennessee Titans to finish with 7 wins
“Tennessee Titans: 7-10”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 65+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
TEN
naive:
7.75
skill:
30
what happened:
6
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
65
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Cincinnati BengalsSep 5, 2023
Cincinnati Bengals to finish with 11 wins
“Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
naive:
10.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Baltimore RavensSep 5, 2023
Baltimore Ravens to finish with 11 wins
“Baltimore Ravens: 11-6”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 25+70 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
naive:
9.25
skill:
70
what happened:
13
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
25
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Green Bay PackersSep 5, 2023
Green Bay Packers to finish with 7 wins
“Green Bay Packers: 7-10”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 85-50 skill
How this was scored
team:
GB
naive:
8.25
skill:
-50
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
85
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks New York JetsSep 5, 2023
New York Jets to make the playoffs
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 3. Jets”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
skill:
-200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Atlanta FalconsSep 5, 2023
Atlanta Falcons to finish with 9 wins
“Atlanta Falcons: 9-8”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 85-50 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
naive:
7.75
skill:
-50
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
85
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Pittsburgh SteelersSep 5, 2023
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
PIT
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Seattle SeahawksSep 5, 2023
Seattle Seahawks to finish with 11 wins
“Seattle Seahawks: 11-6”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 95-70 skill
How this was scored
team:
SEA
naive:
8.75
skill:
-70
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
95
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Houston TexansSep 5, 2023
Houston Texans to finish with 5 wins
“Houston Texans: 5-12”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 15-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
HOU
naive:
5.75
skill:
-30
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
15
predicted:
5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Buffalo BillsSep 5, 2023
Buffalo Bills to finish with 11 wins
“Buffalo Bills: 11-6”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
naive:
10.75
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Los Angeles RamsSep 5, 2023
Los Angeles Rams to finish with 4 wins
“Los Angeles Rams: 4-13”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 35-70 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAR
naive:
6.75
skill:
-70
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
35
predicted:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Justin Herbert Los Angeles ChargersSep 5, 2023
Justin Herbert to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“Herbert leads the league in passing yards.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Justin Herbert
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
2
actual finish:
18
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More season win totals

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Reynolds predicted win-loss records for all 32 teams, playoff seeding for both conferences, several league-leader player predictions, and picked the Bengals to beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

Who this take is about

66 checkable claims in this take

What others said about the same people

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