Ryan Reynolds · Sep 5, 2023

Reynolds predicted win-loss records for all 32 teams, playoff seeding for both conferences, several league-leader player predictions, and picked the Bengals to beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

“Super Bowl Prediction: Bengals over Cowboys”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original →

66 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 3. Jets”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
skill:
-200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
PIT
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Cleveland Browns: 9-8”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 35+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
CLE
naive:
7.75
skill:
50
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
35
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 95-110 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
naive:
8.75
skill:
-110
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
95
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Houston Texans: 5-12”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 15-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
HOU
naive:
5.75
skill:
-30
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
15
predicted:
5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 95-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
95
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Denver Broncos: 8-9”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
naive:
6.75
skill:
50
what happened:
8
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Las Vegas Raiders: 4-13”
Scored 20a naive guess scored 85-130 skill
How this was scored
team:
LV
naive:
7.25
skill:
-130
what happened:
8
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
85
predicted:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“New England Patriots: 7-10”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 15+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
NE
naive:
8.25
skill:
50
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
15
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Miami Dolphins: 10-7”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 55+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
MIA
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
55
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
naive:
11.25
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Washington Commanders: 6-11”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 15+90 skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
naive:
8.25
skill:
90
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
15
predicted:
6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Detroit Lions: 10-7”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 35+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
naive:
8.75
skill:
50
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
35
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Chicago Bears: 8-9”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
CHI
naive:
5.75
skill:
10
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
75
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Green Bay Packers: 7-10”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 85-50 skill
How this was scored
team:
GB
naive:
8.25
skill:
-50
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
85
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 2. Cowboys”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
DAL
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Atlanta Falcons: 9-8”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 85-50 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
naive:
7.75
skill:
-50
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
85
predicted:
9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-14”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 85-170 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
naive:
8.25
skill:
-170
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
85
predicted:
3
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“San Francisco 49ers: 12-5”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 75+50 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
naive:
10.75
skill:
50
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
75
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 1. Jaguars”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
JAX
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 3. Saints”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NO
skill:
-200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesSep 5, 2023
“Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the league in receptions.”
Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 41.67+83.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
83.33
player:
Amon-Ra St. Brown
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
41.67
position:
WR
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
10
actual finish:
3
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“New York Jets: 12-5”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 85-170 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
naive:
7.75
skill:
-170
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
85
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Buffalo Bills: 11-6”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 95+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
naive:
10.75
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
95
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Dallas Cowboys: 12-5”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 65+70 skill
How this was scored
team:
DAL
naive:
10.25
skill:
70
what happened:
12
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
65
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Los Angeles Rams: 4-13”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 35-70 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAR
naive:
6.75
skill:
-70
what happened:
10
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
35
predicted:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 4. Lions”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
team:
DET
skill:
200
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 1. 49ers”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
SF
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesSep 5, 2023
“Burrow leads the league in touchdown passes.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Joe Burrow
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
4
actual finish:
25
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesSep 5, 2023
“Micah Parsons leads the league in sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Micah Parsons
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
LB
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
102
actual finish:
82
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Baltimore Ravens: 11-6”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 25+70 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
naive:
9.25
skill:
70
what happened:
13
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
25
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 5. Seahawks”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
SEA
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
naive:
10.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Tennessee Titans: 7-10”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 65+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
TEN
naive:
7.75
skill:
30
what happened:
6
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
65
predicted:
7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 7. Chargers”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 15-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
naive:
9.25
skill:
-30
what happened:
5
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
15
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“New York Giants: 8-9”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 45+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYG
naive:
8.75
skill:
30
what happened:
6
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
45
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Minnesota Vikings: 8-9”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 25+110 skill
How this was scored
team:
MIN
naive:
10.75
skill:
110
what happened:
7
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
25
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“New Orleans Saints: 11-6”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 75-30 skill
How this was scored
team:
NO
naive:
7.75
skill:
-30
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
75
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Carolina Panthers: 6-11”
Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
How this was scored
team:
CAR
naive:
7.75
skill:
40
what happened:
2
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
0
predicted:
6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Arizona Cardinals: 2-15”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 55+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
ARI
naive:
6.25
skill:
10
what happened:
4
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
55
predicted:
2
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Seattle Seahawks: 11-6”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 95-70 skill
How this was scored
team:
SEA
naive:
8.75
skill:
-70
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
60
baseline:
95
predicted:
11
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 5. Bills”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 2. Chiefs”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesSep 5, 2023
“Herbert leads the league in passing yards.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-100
player:
Justin Herbert
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
position:
QB
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
11
actual finish:
17
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesSep 5, 2023
“Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in receiving touchdowns.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 91.67-183.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-183.33
player:
Ja'Marr Chase
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
12
actual finish:
13
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl PicksSep 5, 2023
“Super Bowl Prediction: Bengals over Cowboys”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-200
they picked:
CIN
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champion:
KC
runner up:
SF
naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsSep 5, 2023
“Indianapolis Colts: 4-13”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 45-90 skill
How this was scored
team:
IND
naive:
6.25
skill:
-90
what happened:
9
season:
2023
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
45
predicted:
4
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 6. Eagles”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
PHI
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 7. Falcons”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
ATL
skill:
-200
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 6. Ravens”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff PicksSep 5, 2023
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 4. Bengals”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
skill:
0
season:
2023
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesSep 5, 2023
“Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing yards.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Nick Chubb
season:
2023
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
RB
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
5
actual finish:
85
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersSep 5, 2023
“AFC West Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5 ... 2. Chiefs”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersSep 5, 2023
“AFC East New York Jets: 12-5 ... AFC Playoff Seeding: ... 3. Jets”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division WinnersSep 5, 2023
“AFC North Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6 ... 4. Bengals”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
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Award PicksSep 5, 2023
“Micah Parsons leads the league in sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.”
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Seeding, Byes and Home FieldSep 5, 2023
“NFC Playoff Seeding: 1. 49ers 2. Cowboys 3. Saints 4. Lions 5. Seahawks 6. Eagles 7. Falcons”
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Seeding, Byes and Home FieldSep 5, 2023
“AFC Playoff Seeding: 1. Jaguars 2. Chiefs 3. Jets 4. Bengals 5. Bills 6. Ravens 7. Chargers”
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Division WinnersSep 5, 2023
“NFC East Dallas Cowboys: 12-5 ... 2. Cowboys”
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Conference ChampionsSep 5, 2023
“NFC Super Bowl Representative: Dallas Cowboys”
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Division WinnersSep 5, 2023
“AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars: 12-5 ... 1. Jaguars”
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Division WinnersSep 5, 2023
“NFC North Detroit Lions: 10-7 ... 4. Lions”
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Division WinnersSep 5, 2023
“NFC South New Orleans Saints: 11-6 ... 3. Saints”
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Division WinnersSep 5, 2023
“NFC West San Francisco 49ers: 12-5 ... 1. 49ers”
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Conference ChampionsSep 5, 2023
“AFC Super Bowl Representative: Cincinnati Bengals”
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