Jamie Erdahl· Sep 2, 2025
Erdahl made her full 14-team playoff field: Bills, Ravens, Jaguars and Broncos as AFC division winners with Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs as wild cards; Rams, Buccaneers, Eagles and Vikings as NFC division winners with Seahawks, Giants and Packers as wild cards. She also picked Ashton Jeanty as Offensive Rookie of the Year and Brian Daboll as Coach of the Year.
“The Seattle Seahawks, the New York Giants after Brian Dable wins Coach of the Year in the NFL, and the Green Bay Packers.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
16 checkable claims — 8 division winners, 6 playoff picks, 1 award pick and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 16 have settled, averaging 43.8 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensSep 2, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“No, but the Ravens are in... So I got the Ravens in, the Bills in, the Jags are in”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersMinnesota VikingsSep 2, 2025
Minnesota Vikings to win the division
“I could not have the vikings in as my NFC North champs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 2, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“These guys are my NFC South champions.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersJacksonville JaguarsSep 2, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“The Jags are my AFC South winners.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersDenver BroncosSep 2, 2025
Denver Broncos to win the division
“your sound sound logic about the Denver Broncos makes them my AFC West”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersPhiladelphia EaglesSep 2, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to win the division
“you're my NFC East champions”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersBuffalo BillsSep 2, 2025
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“specifically the Buffalo Bills will be my AFC East”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersLos Angeles RamsSep 2, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
“the La Rams are my West champion in the NFC West”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsSep 2, 2025
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“Mike Rabel new Man in town... new Man wearing the head coach headset in New England... I think he takes them back to the Promised Land with Drake May at quarterback”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 2, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“I don't know if it's I'm just drinking the kool aid or what, but this works for the Steelers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 2, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“And the Chiefs, you guys are in all right? So they are my AFC playoff teams.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 2, 2025
Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs
“The Seattle Seahawks, the New York Giants... and the Green Bay Packers. You're in. Those are my NFC wildcard teams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SEA
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksNew York GiantsSep 2, 2025
New York Giants to make the playoffs
“I think the Giants are in by the hanging on by their teeth.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 2, 2025
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
“and the Green Bay Packers. You're in. Those are my NFC wildcard teams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Coach Award PicksSep 2, 2025
Brian Dable to win Coach of the Year
“the New York Giants after Brian Dable wins Coach of the Year in the NFL”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Brian Daboll
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Mike Vrabel
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksZach GentryLas Vegas RaidersSep 2, 2025
Zach Gentry to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“even though ash Genty is my offensive rookie of the year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- 3495fce2-d9c6-42c6-8c8f-daf0a025f4e5
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Jason La CanforaRoster Spot Calls · Tyler LoopMiss · 0La Canfora argues the Ravens have unresolved problems at left tackle, downfield receiver, center and kicker, and says that despite Tyler Loop's home struggles no kicker change will be made this week given the trip to Brazil and Jake Moody no longer being on the practice squad.
- Bill HuberDepth Chart Calls · Chris McClellanMiss · 0Huber's first Packers rookie progress report projects second-round cornerback Brandon Cisse to hold onto his spot with the No. 1 defense, third-round defensive tackle Chris McClellan to start in Week 1, and fifth-round lineman Jager Burton to be the team's top interior backup rather than a starter.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Mike EvansMiss · 0Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others.
- Tom StrachanTrade and Signing Calls · Mike EvansMiss · 0Tom Strachan offered his own 2026 free-agent landing spots, sending Aaron Rodgers to Arizona, Malik Willis to Pittsburgh, Alec Pierce to Seattle, Mike Evans to Baltimore, Deebo Samuel to Carolina, Kenneth Walker to Houston, Breece Hall to Washington, Kyle Pitts to Philadelphia and Dallas Goedert to Miami, while keeping Daniel Jones and Javonte Williams with their current teams.
- Trevor RipleyRoster Spot Calls · Dillon BellMiss · 0Ripley expects Max Brosmer to return to the Vikings on the practice squad after being waived, and thinks Dillon Bell may draw waiver interest but is also a practice squad candidate for Minnesota.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jalen McLeodMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Cynthia FrelundDivision Winners · Houston TexansMiss · 0Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; she also sees the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.
- Chris BrockmanDivision Winners · Chicago BearsHit · 100Brockman called the Broncos-Packers game the best of the day, said Denver looks poised to lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed and reach the AFC Championship Game, predicted the Bears win the NFC North and the Eagles win their division (though he thinks they lose to a five seed from the NFC West), and said Philip Rivers will be in the NFL in 2026.
- Chris BrockmanDivision Winners · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.
- Chris BrockmanDivision Winners · Dallas CowboysMiss · 0Brockman argued the Broncos are headed to the AFC Championship Game, that the Cowboys will win the NFC East, that Green Bay is the NFC's best team, and that the Bears will finish no worse than the No. 2 seed in the NFC.