The unnamed host of this weekly Friday NFL gambling show gave his five picks: Atlanta laying 7.5 against Miami, Chicago getting 6.5 in Baltimore (saying the Bears could win outright), Tampa Bay laying 3.5 in New Orleans, Dallas getting 3.5 in Denver, and Green Bay laying 3 in Pittsburgh. He also called Travis Kelce to score a touchdown Monday night.

5 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Player Season NumbersOct 25, 2025

  “I think Travis scores... Travis Kelcey plus one twenty anytime touchdown.”

  Scored 0a naive guess scored 21.33-34.35 skill
  How this was scored

  naive:

  3.03

  skill:

  -34.35

  what happened:

  5

  player:

  Travis Kelce

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  21.33

  predicted:

  1

  statistic:

  receiving_tds

  difficulty:

  1.61

  last season:

  3

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  11

  position average:

  3.07

  zero at percent out:

  50

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksOct 25, 2025

  “I think green Bay's better than Pittsburgh... And I just think green Bay is due for a statement game. Green Bay minus three.”

  Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+161 skill
  How this was scored

  won:

  GB

  score:

  35-25

  skill:

  161

  they picked:

  GB

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  0

  naive pick:

  PIT

  difficulty:

  1.61

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  11

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksOct 25, 2025

  “But I think Chicago could win outright and six and a half points. I just think the Ravens have not earned the right to be a touchdown favorite. So I'll take Chicago plus the six and a half.”

  Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skill
  How this was scored

  won:

  BAL

  score:

  16-30

  skill:

  -161

  they picked:

  CHI

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  100

  naive pick:

  BAL

  difficulty:

  1.61

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  11

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksOct 25, 2025

  “I do know that the Miami defense can't deal with Bijon all lay the seven and a half with Atlanta.”

  Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored

  won:

  MIA

  score:

  34-10

  skill:

  0

  they picked:

  ATL

  season:

  2025

  accuracy:

  0

  baseline:

  0

  naive pick:

  ATL

  difficulty:

  1.61

  weeks in the season:

  18

  weeks left when called:

  11

  Think this is wrong?

• Game Outcome PicksOct 25, 2025

  “that Baker press conference, I was like, Nope, I'm taking Tampa... I'll lay the three and a half with Tampa.”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.

  Think this is wrong?