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Gregg Rosenthal· Jan 24, 2025

Rosenthal expects Liam Cohen to become the Jaguars' next head coach, and predicts the Jaguars won't necessarily win on the field in 2025. Against the spread he takes the Commanders plus six, and he picks the Bills to beat the Chiefs 31-28, having also picked Buffalo to win the Super Bowl.

“They're not going to be the worst the best team that hasn't made the super Bowl because they are going to make the super Bowl and they win it by three points.”

said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

4 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 25 out of 100, against 87.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Score PredictionsBuffalo BillsJan 24, 2025

    Buffalo Bills 31 — Chiefs 28

    “Great game, Bill's Chiefs thirty one, twenty eight. Let's go with that.”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 98.28-48.28 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    29-32
    skill:
    -48.28
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    98.28
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.28
    predicted margin:
    3

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 24, 2025

    Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs

    “I think the Bills are going to win this game. I do legitimately believe it.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    29-32
    skill:
    -100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Conference ChampionsBuffalo BillsJan 24, 2025

    Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl

    “because they are going to make the super Bowl and they win it by three points”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-50 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -50
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    100
    champions:
    PHI,KC
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    yes

    Think this is wrong?

  • Super Bowl PicksBuffalo BillsJan 24, 2025

    Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl

    “I did have the Bills winning the Super Bowl this year, so I'm I am invested.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    -50
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    champion:
    PHI
    runner up:
    KC
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More conference champions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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