Natalie Kerwin· Apr 8, 2026
Natalie's Lions mock pick at No. 17 in the 2026 draft was Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano, with Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane as her backup selection at that spot.
“Spencer Fano at pick 17 out of Utah.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Lions (podcast) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 79.3 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where this call stands in the room
Spencer Fano · 2026 season · overall pick4 calls from 3 pundits between 9 overall pick and 17 overall pick. Natalie Kerwin said 17 overall pick. the room's median is 17 overall pick. what happened: 9 overall pick
Natalie Kerwin — 17 overall pickthe room — 4 calls from 3 punditsmedian 17 overall pickwhat happened — 9 overall pick
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pick17They said
9What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoDetroit LionsApr 8, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 17
“With the seventeenth pick in the twenty twenty six NFL draft, the Detroit Lions select. Spencer Fano at pick 17 out of Utah.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 70.71
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 17
“So backup pick, I would take the guard, Oliva Vega, Yoani... So he would be a guard for the for the lions.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Olaivavega Ioane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
What others said about the same people
- Richard ShermanScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 90Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
- Colin CowherdScore Predictions · Detroit LionsClose · 60The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") made his own Week 3 picks, including blowout wins for Seattle and San Francisco, Cincinnati 27-17, Detroit 37-13, Denver 24-21 over the Rams, and predicted Jonah Coleman takes over the Broncos' running back role.
- Tyler SullivanScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 88Sullivan projects final scores for every Week 3 game, including a Bills blowout of the reeling Chargers, a Chiefs rout in Miami, a Seahawks win over a Mariota-led Washington, and the Saints beating the Raiders in their home opener. He also expects Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart all to be sidelined in Week 3, with Marcus Mariota starting for Washington.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 95Prisco picks every Week 3 game with exact scores, highlighting upsets by Tampa Bay over Minnesota and Cleveland over Carolina, and expects the Giants to rally behind Jameis Winston.
- John BreechScore Predictions · Detroit LionsHit · 100Breech predicts the Dolphins will miss the playoffs and may go winless, and picks every Week 3 game with scores, including Texans over Colts, a Buccaneers upset of Minnesota, Ravens over Cowboys in Brazil, Saints over Raiders and Broncos over Rams.
- Mike FlorioGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Florio says the Lions' next three games — vs. the Jets, at the Panthers, at the Cardinals — are winnable, and that if all goes well Detroit will be 4-1 heading into its bye.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.