Danny Parkins· Jul 29, 2025
Guest-hosting The Herd, Parkins counted down his top ten NFL teams heading into the season, with the Eagles first and the Chargers tenth. He also predicted the Chargers return to the playoffs, the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl, ranked Justin Herbert as the fifth-best quarterback in football, described Shedeur Sanders as fourth on Cleveland's QB depth chart, and said he'd be floored if the Colts moved on from Anthony Richardson.
“If the explosiveness can return to the Chiefs offense, I expect them back in the Super Bowl.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 depth chart call, 1 playoff pick, 1 positional finishe, 1 power ranking and 1 roster spot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 68.7 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Anthony Richardson to make the roster
“I will be floored if the Colts move off of Anthony Richardson, cut him, trade him for a mid round pick, whatever it would be, because I think they believe in the talent”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 1
- Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsJul 29, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“If the explosiveness can return to the Chiefs offense, I expect them back in the Super Bowl.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
Justin Herbert to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards
“Explain to me why Justin Herbert isn't the fifth best quarterback in football because he passes my beautiful eye test.”
Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 100-66.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -66.67
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 9
- actual finish:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 5
- Power RankingsSan Francisco 49ersJul 29, 2025
“we will begin with my top ten teams heading in to the upcoming football season... Number ten, it's the Chargers of Los Angeles... Number nine the Washington Commanders... Number eight the San Francisco forty nine ers... Cincinnati Bengals [number seven]... Number six... this Rams team... Number five... Baltimore Ravens... Number four... the Bills... The Detroit Lions come in at number three... Number two the Kansas City Chiefs... Number one the Philadelphia Eagles”
Close · 70Scored 70.24a naive guess scored 58.33+23.81 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 23.81
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 70.24
- baseline:
- 58.33
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsShedeur SandersCleveland BrownsJul 29, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be 4th on the depth chart
“I am fourth on a bad quarterback depth chart for a bad organization... because if you're fourth on that depth chart, you're a long ways away from actually playing meaningful football in the NFL”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 91.67-33.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- -33.33
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersJul 29, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“The Chargers. I expect them back in the playoffs”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
- Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
- Mark ChichesterDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Unsigned PFF piece reporting/asserting that Deshaun Watson will be Cleveland's Week 1 starting quarterback against Jacksonville, with Shedeur Sanders behind him on the depth chart.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.