Rich Hribar· Jun 19, 2023
Hribar argues Pat Freiermuth reaching 100 catches in 2023 is highly improbable, and that Chris Godwin is undervalued relative to ADP — his projections have Godwin as WR17 in full-PPR while he personally ranks him WR24. He also flags Rachaad White, James Conner, Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks as projecting above their draft cost, and prefers Christian Watson to Godwin at similar cost.
“The projections have Godwin as the WR17 in full-PPR scoring. I have him as WR24.”
published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original (as archived Jun 19, 2023) → · live page (has changed since this capture)
7 checkable claims — 5 sleeper calls, 1 player season number and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 72.2 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsKeenan AllenJun 19, 2023
Keenan Allen to outplay his draft cost
“His teammate Rachaad White, James Conner, Keenan Allen, and Brandin Cooks are all players that project higher than their current cost.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Keenan Allen
- season:
- 2023
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR40
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR11
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2022 finish
- Sleeper CallsJames ConnerJun 19, 2023
James Conner to outplay his draft cost
“His teammate Rachaad White, James Conner, Keenan Allen, and Brandin Cooks are all players that project higher than their current cost.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- James Conner
- season:
- 2023
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB19
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB15
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2022 finish
- Sleeper CallsBrandin CooksJun 19, 2023
Brandin Cooks to outplay his draft cost
“His teammate Rachaad White, James Conner, Keenan Allen, and Brandin Cooks are all players that project higher than their current cost.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Brandin Cooks
- season:
- 2023
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR48
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR35
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2022 finish
Chris Godwin Jr. to outplay his draft cost
“I want to be above the field because Godwin objectively shows up as undervalued.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Chris Godwin Jr.
- season:
- 2023
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR26
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2022 finish
- Sleeper CallsRachaad WhiteTampa Bay BuccaneersJun 19, 2023
Rachaad White to outplay his draft cost
“His teammate Rachaad White, James Conner, Keenan Allen, and Brandin Cooks are all players that project higher than their current cost.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- none named
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Rachaad White
- season:
- 2023
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB42
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2022 finish
Chris Godwin Jr. to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
“The projections have Godwin as the WR17 in full-PPR scoring. I have him as WR24. ADP has him at WR28.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 50-33.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -33.33
- player:
- Chris Godwin Jr.
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 50
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 26
- actual finish:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 24
Pat Freiermuth to record 100 receptions
“the probability of Freiermuth catching 100 passes this season is very slim”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Matt Money SmithSleeper Calls · Tre HarrisMiss · 0Smith says Ladd McConkie is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who could post a Jaylen Waddle-like season of roughly 1,700 yards and eight touchdowns, and he predicts second-year Chargers receiver Trey Harris will have a big year under Mike McDaniel. He also expects Philip Rivers to become an NFL head coach and thinks the Chargers offense will be good in the coming season.
- Brandon CarneySleeper Calls · Javonte WilliamsHit · 100Carney predicted AJ Brown would not be back with the Eagles, forecast a wave of free-agent landing spots (Breece Hall to the Chiefs, Alec Pierce to the 49ers, Rico Dowdle to the Saints, George Pickens to the Patriots, Mike Evans to the Bills), and named Week 1 starting quarterbacks for several teams in flux. He also gave fantasy takes on Javonte Williams, Chris Olave and others.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonSleeper Calls · Saquon BarkleyMiss · 0Johnson says the Steelers aren't legitimate Super Bowl contenders even with Aaron Rodgers back, and that Saquon Barkley can have a bounce-back season in year nine with the Eagles competing for a championship if the offensive line stays healthy.
- Ross JacksonSleeper Calls · Devaughn VeleMiss · 0Ross Jackson agreed to the same Saints mock draft board — Jeremiah Love at eight, Akeem Mesador in the second, Keonte Scott at 73, Keelan Rutledge and Ted Hurst in the fourth, Xavien Harris at 148, Aaron Anderson in the fifth and Bryce Boettcher in the sixth — and also called Devon Vellet a 2026 breakout candidate.
- Greg CosellSleeper Calls · Omarion HamptonMiss · 0Cosell expects the Nick Bonito vs. Will Campbell matchup to be pivotal, predicts Caleb Williams' future is bright, expects the Chargers' run game to improve dramatically under Mike McDaniel with a good season from Omarion Hampton, and expects Sean Payton not to hide Stidham.
- Andrew EricksonSleeper Calls · Malik NabersMiss · 0Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low.