Marcus Mosher· Oct 1, 2024
Mosher publishes his Week 5 NFL power rankings for 2024, with the Chiefs first and Jaguars last. Along the way he predicts the Buccaneers hold onto the NFC South, the Seahawks could steal the NFC West, and the Jaguars will pick inside the top five of the 2025 draft.
“The Jaguars look like a lock to pick inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Oct 1, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
3 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 power ranking and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 95.1 out of 100, against 71.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 1, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
“This still feels like Tampa Bay's division until further notice, especially if Mayfield continues to play at this level.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- won the division:
- yes
- Power RankingsOct 1, 2024
“NFL Week 5 Power Rankings: 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Jacksonville Jaguars”
Hit · 85Scored 85.21a naive guess scored 67.38+31.74 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 31.74
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 85.21
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Team Draft Slot CallsJacksonville JaguarsOct 1, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars to pick “inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft” (picks 1–5)
“The Jaguars look like a lock to pick inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 45.85+96.39 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 23 the year before
- skill:
- 96.39
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 45.85
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 14
What others said about the same people
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
- Pat FitzmauriceMock Draft Picks · Cashius HowellMiss · 32Making a third of the mock's picks, he gave Reuben Bain to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauinoa to Cleveland at 6, Jeremiah Love to Kansas City at 9, Mansoor Delane to Dallas at 12, Cassius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kadyn Proctor to San Francisco at 27 and TJ Parker to New England at 30.
- Chris RoseTrade and Signing Calls · D.J. ReedMiss · 0Hosting a mock free-agency draft, Rose predicted destinations for Nick Bolton, Carlton Davis, Russell Wilson, Malcolm Koonce, Stefon Diggs, Byron Murphy, Chase Young and Jacoby Brissett, plus Justin Fields returning to Pittsburgh, Ronnie Stanley leaving Baltimore, and the Browns trading up to No. 1 to take Cam Ward.
- John ShipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jack KiserMiss · 0Shipley projects a full 16-player (plus one international/exemption spot) Jaguars practice squad for 2026, naming specific players at each position he expects to land there.
- Jared DubinDepth Chart Calls · Daniel FaaleleMiss · 0Dubin grades the Faalele trade, predicting Faalele has a decent chance to be Jacksonville's Week 1 starting right guard in competition with Wyatt Milum, and that Evan Neal's odds of making the Giants' 53-man roster improved while Jon Runyan and Francis Mauigoa hold the Giants' starting guard jobs.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Cynthia FrelundDivision Winners · Houston TexansMiss · 0Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; she also sees the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.