Kyle Crabbs· Apr 21, 2025
Crabbs publishes his final Top-320 big board for the 2025 NFL Draft, ranking Travis Hunter first, Abdul Carter second and Ashton Jeanty third, and says Jeanty is a virtual lock to be drafted inside the top 10.
“He feels like a top-10 shoo-in on the doorstep of the draft.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 81.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Top Player ListsApr 21, 2025
“Here are the final Top-320 prospect rankings for the 2025 NFL Draft.”
Close · 62Scored 62.43a naive guess scored 50+24.87 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 24.87
- placed:
- 142
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 222
- accuracy:
- 62.43
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- CB 13: 54.12, LB 26: 57.16, RB 15: 61.61, OT 5: 75, DT 19: 58.42, SAF 11: 50.91, DE 10: 37.58, WR 21: 76.04, TE 5: 95, G 9: 65.83, QB 8: 83.33
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 79
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Mock Draft PicksAshton JeantyApr 21, 2025
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 10
“He feels like a top-10 shoo-in on the doorstep of the draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top-10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Ryan WormeliFantasy Bust Calls · Ashton JeantyMiss · 0Warmley predicted Kyle Pitts and Trey McBride both finish as top-five tight ends in the Cardinals-Falcons game, Justin Jefferson bounces back into the top 15 receivers, Quinshen Judkins finishes top 12 against Buffalo, the Ravens beat the Patriots, and the Raiders produce no startable fantasy players against Houston.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · Ashton JeantyHit · 100Derek Brown laid out a round-by-round target list, projecting Ashton Jeanty as a top-three back and Raiders bellcow, Drake London as a possible overall WR1, and Tetairoa McMillan (his must-have player) as a ten-plus touchdown scorer, with late-round upside picks like Dak Prescott and JJ McCarthy at quarterback.
- Simon HunterSleeper Calls · Ashton JeantyHit · 100Simon is drafting Ashton Jeanty in the late first/early second and is comfortable taking him in the first round, is all-in on DeVonta Adams with the Rams, and calls Puka Nacua one of the most overdrafted players who should not be taken in the first round.
- Andrew EricksonSleeper Calls · Ashton JeantyHit · 100Erickson laid out his personal 2025 redraft top-75-style ranks, going higher than consensus on Ashton Jeanty (whom he sees finishing as a top-three RB), Drake London (top-three WR upside with 15 TDs), CeeDee Lamb, Chase Brown, Garrett Wilson and Xavier Worthy, while fading Saquon Barkley, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice, DeVonta Smith, DJ Moore and Jordan Addison.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Ashton JeantyHit · 100Fitzmorris gave his personal ranks, pushing Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers (whom he calls a clear tier above all tight ends), Drake London, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, Chuba Hubbard and Aaron Jones above consensus while fading Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice, DJ Moore and TJ Hockenson.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Ashton JeantyHit · 96As relayed by Eisen, Jeremiah's latest mock draft had Cam Ward, Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, Will Campbell and Ashton Jeanty as the top five, with the Raiders taking Kelvin Banks sixth.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rob RangMock Draft Picks · Jeremiah SmithMiss · 0Rang ranks the four headline prospects from the Texas-Ohio State game in the order he'd draft them (Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Julian Sayin) and assigns each a draft grade: Smith and Manning as top-5 picks, Coleman top 10, and Sayin a third-rounder.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · Brandon DoughtyMiss · 3Rosenthal gave first reactions to Vegas win totals: overs on the Steelers, Broncos, Vikings, Buccaneers, 49ers and Cardinals, unders on the Falcons and Commanders, plus he expects Shedeur Sanders to start about 10-11 games and thinks the Cowboys' 9.5 is beatable.
- Peter BukowskiMock Draft Picks · Gennings DunkerHit · 100Bukowski breaks down Iowa offensive lineman Jennings Dunker as a Packers fit and puts a late second-/early third-round grade on him, noting that range overlaps where Green Bay picks.
- David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Eli HeidenreichHit · 100Harrison delivers his only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
- Brian PeacockMock Draft Picks · Bud ClarkHit · 96In his final 2026 mock draft for the 49ers, Peacock projects San Francisco taking WR Kevin Concepcion (KC) at pick 27, then after trading out of round two, edge rusher Kieron Crawford and safety Bud Clark in round three, OL Trey Zune and RB Jonah Coleman in round four, CB Charles Demings in round five and guard Caden Barnett in round six. He also thinks Omar Cooper comes off the board before Concepcion.
- David HarrisonMock Draft Picks · Riley NowakowskiMiss · 13In his final mock draft Monday, Harrison has the Commanders trading back twice and selecting eight players: safety Dylan Thieneman at 16, WR Denzel Boston at 33, RB Mike Washington Jr. at 83, C Jagger Burton at 132, CB Julian Neal at 147, QB Cade Klubnik at 187, DB Lorenzo Styles Jr. at 209 and TE Riley Nowakowski in the seventh round.