Pat Fitzmaurice· May 17, 2025
Fitzmorris gave his personal ranks, pushing Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers (whom he calls a clear tier above all tight ends), Drake London, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, Chuba Hubbard and Aaron Jones above consensus while fading Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice, DJ Moore and TJ Hockenson.
“So yes, I do think Bowers is a clear tier above anyone else at tight end.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
15 checkable claims — 7 sleeper calls, 5 fantasy bust calls, 1 depth chart call, 1 fantasy ranking and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 22 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 15 have settled, averaging 33.1 out of 100, against 72.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
- T.J. Hockenson
- Minnesota Vikings
- Aaron Jones
- Chuba Hubbard
- Carolina Panthers
- Garrett Wilson
- New York Jets
- Brock Bowers
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Ashton Jeanty
- Rashee Rice
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Drake London
- Atlanta Falcons
- Christian McCaffrey
- San Francisco 49ers
- DJ Moore
- Chicago Bears
- Mike Evans
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tyreek Hill
- Miami Dolphins
15 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
T.J. Hockenson to fall short of his draft cost (a sixth rounder in ECR)
“I just cannot get on board with a sixth round ECR for him.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- a sixth rounder in ECR
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- T.J. Hockenson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE33
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE29
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsAaron JonesMinnesota VikingsMay 17, 2025
Aaron Jones to outplay his draft cost (his end of the fifth round ECR)
“maybe people are a little bored with him, so I think he's going to be a value in drafts”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- his end of the fifth round ECR
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Aaron Jones
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- cost round:
- 5
- had to beat:
- RB20
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB44
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — his end of the fifth round ECR
- Sleeper CallsChuba HubbardCarolina PanthersMay 17, 2025
Chuba Hubbard to outplay his draft cost (more towards the late fourth)
“because I would be perfectly comfortable taking him early in the fourth and he's going more towards the late fourth”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- more towards the late fourth
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Chuba Hubbard
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB42
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsGarrett WilsonNew York JetsMay 17, 2025
Garrett Wilson to outplay his draft cost (ECR thirty six)
“I'm ahead of ECR on him for sure, And like I might even be able to move Garrett Wilson a little higher”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- ECR thirty six
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Garrett Wilson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR64
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsBrock BowersLas Vegas RaidersMay 17, 2025
Brock Bowers to outplay his draft cost (ECR fifteen)
“And I do think brock Bauer should go at the turn in twelve team drafts.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- ECR fifteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE2
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsAshton JeantyLas Vegas RaidersMay 17, 2025
Ashton Jeanty to outplay his draft cost (ECR ten)
“I don't need to wait until the back end of the first round of Draft ash and jenty just because he hasn't compiled any sort of NFL resume yet.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- ECR ten
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB15
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Fantasy Bust CallsRashee RiceKansas City ChiefsMay 17, 2025
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (an ECR of forty three)
“with Rashie Rice at an ECR of forty three and Xavier Worthy at fifty four, at least one of those guys has to be a colossal disappointment at their current cost”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- an ECR of forty three
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Rashee Rice
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR97
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR41
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsDrake LondonAtlanta FalconsMay 17, 2025
Drake London to outplay his draft cost (ECR nineteen)
“I think London is absolutely worthy of being drafted close to the turn... I'm higher on him than ECR”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- ECR nineteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Drake London
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ECR sixteen, a second round pick)
“McCaffrey is not a risk worth taking because when your shark, your emphasis in the first two rounds should be on avoiding the bear traps”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- ECR sixteen, a second round pick
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- cost round:
- 2
- had to beat:
- RB6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — ECR sixteen, a second round pick
- Fantasy Bust CallsDJ MooreChicago BearsMay 17, 2025
DJ Moore to fall short of his draft cost (ECR thirty nine)
“It's more of a gentle fade for me... I'm probably not going to have a lot of DJ Moore in twenty twenty five.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- ECR thirty nine
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- DJ Moore
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR22
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR27
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsMike EvansTampa Bay BuccaneersMay 17, 2025
Mike Evans to outplay his draft cost (ECR thirty two)
“I do still think Evans is a pretty low risk, high yield investment... So I'm going to keep drafting Mike Evans.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- ECR thirty two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Mike Evans
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR76
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Fantasy Bust CallsTyreek HillMiami DolphinsMay 17, 2025
Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (a mid third round price)
“I just I want no part of thirty one year old Tyreek Hill coming off a bad year... I don't really want to pay a mid third round price to find out”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- a mid third round price
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyreek Hill
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- cost round:
- 3
- had to beat:
- WR10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR107
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — a mid third round price
- Fantasy RankingsMay 17, 2025
“I have him at seven overall Welsh... twelfth overall [Bowers]... I think I've got him fifteenth overall [London]... Fits you've got him at twenty six [Evans]... I've got him at thirty thirty four [Wilson]... I'm right where Ericson is forty sixth overall [DJ Moore]... you've got him at fifty [Aaron Jones]... Worthy I have at fifty five... I've gone him at fifty eight overall [Rice]”
Close · 64Scored 63.57a naive guess scored 50+27.14 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 27.14
- placed:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 9
- accuracy:
- 63.57
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 2: 100, WR 6: 51.43
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesBrock BowersLas Vegas RaidersMay 17, 2025
Brock Bowers to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
“So yes, I do think Bowers is a clear tier above anyone else at tight end.”
Close · 42Scored 41.67a naive guess scored 50-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 41.67
- baseline:
- 50
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 2
- actual finish:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Depth Chart CallsChuba HubbardCarolina PanthersMay 17, 2025
Chuba Hubbard to be 1st on the depth chart
“So I'm not worried about Dowell supplanting Chuba Hubbard. I'm not too worried about fourth round draft pick Trevor Etn... supplanting Cuba.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CAR
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Chuba Hubbard
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Fox SportsRoster Spot Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100FOX Sports projects Kyle McCord as Miami's backup behind starter Malik Willis, Mitchell Trubisky as Tennessee's primary backup behind starter Cam Ward, and J.J. McCarthy making the Vikings' 53-man roster.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Carson WentzHit · 100PFF's preseason fantasy recap makes a series of depth-chart, roster and usage projections based on final-week preseason snap counts, including Ja'Kobi Lane locking down the Ravens' third receiver role, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Kyle Pitts facing reduced 12-personnel usage, Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2 and Emmett Johnson as the Chiefs' backup running back.
- Mike MoraitisRoster Spot Calls · Josh BlackwellHit · 100Moraitis names seven Bears as trade candidates before roster cuts, predicting Kiran Amegadjie and Jedrick Wills are on the roster bubble and likely to be traded, while Ozzy Trapilo avoids an injured list, and listing several players as locks for the 53-man roster.
- Trevor RipleyRoster Spot Calls · Jacob ThomasHit · 100Ripley expects UDFA safety Jacob Thomas to earn a roster spot with the Vikings after a strong preseason showing, believes Jay Ward will start opposite Metellus, and thinks Theo Jackson's roster spot is safe despite losing his starting job.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · Travis HunterHit · 100Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Tyler WarrenHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · RJ HarveyHit · 100Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · George PickensHit · 100Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; he forecasts Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Cedric TillmanMiss · 0Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than his QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season.
- Jake CielySleeper Calls · Marvin Mims Jr.Miss · 0Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.