Derek Brown · Aug 10, 2025

Derek Brown laid out a round-by-round target list, projecting Ashton Jeanty as a top-three back and Raiders bellcow, Drake London as a possible overall WR1, and Tetairoa McMillan (his must-have player) as a ten-plus touchdown scorer, with late-round upside picks like Dak Prescott and JJ McCarthy at quarterback.

“London could be the wide receiver one overall this year.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

25 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Player Season NumbersAug 10, 2025
“They repeat that this year with Tedroe may Millen at the top. He's spiking ten plus touchdowns.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 0+80 skill
How this was scored
naive:
3.4
skill:
80
what happened:
7
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
accuracy:
40
baseline:
0
predicted:
10
statistic:
receiving_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
3.4
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesAug 10, 2025
“Genty has the receiving upside and the volume upside to be a top three back in his rookie season.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 25-50 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-50
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
25
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
no prior season — the startable tier at RB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
24
actual finish:
15
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
3
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsAug 10, 2025
“He's going to be their bellcal running back.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
LV
skill:
16.67
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersAug 10, 2025
“he could be a guy that catches eighty balls this year and nobody should be surprised”
Scored 37.5a naive guess scored 0+75 skill
How this was scored
naive:
19.97
skill:
75
what happened:
55
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
accuracy:
37.5
baseline:
0
predicted:
80
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
19.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“When you can get a guy that was an RB one last year in the fourth round at RB two price tags, you do it all day”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
the fourth round at RB two price tags
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
-200
player:
Kenneth Walker III
season:
2025
correct:
false
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
cost round:
4
had to beat:
RB12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB21
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season NumbersAug 10, 2025
“the rushing touchdowns are going anywhere Toush push or not, doesn't matter. He's going to run for ten plus.”
Scored 60a naive guess scored 88.54-57.09 skill
How this was scored
naive:
8.49
skill:
-57.09
what happened:
8
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2025
accuracy:
60
baseline:
88.54
predicted:
10
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
14
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“Trey McBride could be one of those guys again talking about drafting players early that could define leagues... people are saying, dude, why didn't I take trade McBride in the first round”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
third round
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
200
player:
Trey McBride
season:
2025
correct:
true
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
TE
cost round:
3
had to beat:
TE12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
TE1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesAug 10, 2025
“London could be the wide receiver one overall this year.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 8.33-16.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-16.67
player:
Drake London
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
8.33
position:
WR
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
6
actual finish:
17
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesAug 10, 2025
“a guy that I think is gonna be a locked in QB one”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
no prior season — the startable tier at QB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
12
actual finish:
32
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsAug 10, 2025
“he's going to be the starter in two wide receiver sets opposite Nico Collins”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
HOU
skill:
0
player:
Jayden Higgins
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional FinishesAug 10, 2025
“he legitimately could revisit and put up top five numbers this year”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 0+183.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
183.33
player:
Dak Prescott
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
naive basis:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
32
actual finish:
6
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
5
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“Yes, RJ. Harvey fifth round every single time, auto lock on pick every single time. I'll take him in the fourth.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
fifth round
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
200
player:
RJ Harvey
season:
2025
correct:
true
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
cost round:
5
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB22
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“If you're looking at ADP on fantasypros dot com right now, he's eleventh overall... sometimes you can get him in round two or at the back end of round one.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“I'm going with Jarquest Hunter... Hunter is the guy that is built different than Kyrien Williams and Blake korm.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“He's my twelfth overall player. I want to stay ahead of consensus on a Chan. I think he's worth a first round pick”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“taking guys in the round two that could have that honestly have Round one type of profiles and could lead their position... Drake London is the guy that I go with here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“it's Calvin Ridley time. And it's just it's easy, free volume and upside... If cam Ward's good, Calvin Ridley is gonna be very good too.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“So Jayde Higgins, Yes, as a guy you're drafting as your wide receiver five on a lot of different teams. We could be mid season he's producing as a borderline two three for your lineups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“I've been talk about Burshard Smith... the upside is massive here. He could be the Jack McKinnon in this offense... It needs to be drafted a ton of spots.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“So yes, draft all the Jacobe Myers.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“this is a guy you could draft as your wide receiver three for your teams... I think he is going to be a locked in wide receiver two... at this spot in a draft. That is free money.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“But Dak Prescott is the guy you can get at a low end QB one price tag some spots high end QB two”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“it's JJ McCarthy Tom, a guy that I think is gonna be a locked in QB one”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“it's Trey Harris And I will caveat this with if Keenan Allen does sign there, then I'm going to drop him... Trey Harris is the guy that I want to take from this offense.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper CallsAug 10, 2025
“it's Romeo Dobbs... If you look at just his separation metrics on a per route basis, this guy screams like big breakout season coming.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?