Derek Brown· Aug 10, 2025

Derek Brown laid out a round-by-round target list, projecting Ashton Jeanty as a top-three back and Raiders bellcow, Drake London as a possible overall WR1, and Tetairoa McMillan (his must-have player) as a ten-plus touchdown scorer, with late-round upside picks like Dak Prescott and JJ McCarthy at quarterback.

“London could be the wide receiver one overall this year.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

25 checkable claims — 16 sleeper calls, 4 positional finishes, 3 player season numbers and 2 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 33 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

24 of 25 have settled so far, averaging 42.9 out of 100, against 50.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

25 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Sleeper Calls Dak Prescott Dallas CowboysAug 10, 2025
Dak Prescott to outplay his draft cost (low end QB one price tag some spots high end QB two)
“But Dak Prescott is the guy you can get at a low end QB one price tag some spots high end QB two”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
low end QB one price tag some spots high end QB two
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Dak Prescott
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
QB
had to beat:
QB32
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
QB6
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Calvin Ridley Tennessee TitansAug 10, 2025
Calvin Ridley to outplay his draft cost (round seven)
“it's Calvin Ridley time. And it's just it's easy, free volume and upside... If cam Ward's good, Calvin Ridley is gonna be very good too.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round seven
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Calvin Ridley
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR25
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR112
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls J.J. McCarthy Minnesota VikingsAug 10, 2025
J.J. McCarthy to outplay his draft cost (round eleven)
“it's JJ McCarthy Tom, a guy that I think is gonna be a locked in QB one”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round eleven
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
QB
had to beat:
QB12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
QB32
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Jayden Higgins Houston TexansAug 10, 2025
Jayden Higgins to outplay his draft cost (round ten)
“So Jayde Higgins, Yes, as a guy you're drafting as your wide receiver five on a lot of different teams. We could be mid season he's producing as a borderline two three for your lineups.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round ten
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Jayden Higgins
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR36
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR47
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Trey McBride Arizona CardinalsAug 10, 2025
Trey McBride to outplay his draft cost (third round)
“Trey McBride could be one of those guys again talking about drafting players early that could define leagues... people are saying, dude, why didn't I take trade McBride in the first round”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
third round
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
200
player:
Trey McBride
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
TE
cost round:
3
had to beat:
TE7
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
TE1
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the cost the source quoted — third round
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Jakobi Meyers Las Vegas RaidersAug 10, 2025
Jakobi Meyers to outplay his draft cost (round eight)
“So yes, draft all the Jacobe Myers.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round eight
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Jakobi Meyers
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR29
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR38
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Brashard Smith Kansas City ChiefsAug 10, 2025
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (round fourteen)
“I've been talk about Burshard Smith... the upside is massive here. He could be the Jack McKinnon in this offense... It needs to be drafted a ton of spots.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round fourteen
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Brashard Smith
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB70
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Drake London Atlanta FalconsAug 10, 2025
Drake London to outplay his draft cost (round two)
“taking guys in the round two that could have that honestly have Round one type of profiles and could lead their position... Drake London is the guy that I go with here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round two
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
-200
player:
Drake London
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR17
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Tre Harris Los Angeles ChargersAug 10, 2025
Tre Harris to outplay his draft cost (round twelve)
“it's Trey Harris And I will caveat this with if Keenan Allen does sign there, then I'm going to drop him... Trey Harris is the guy that I want to take from this offense.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round twelve
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
-200
player:
Tre Harris
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR36
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR95
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls RJ Harvey Denver BroncosAug 10, 2025
RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (fifth round)
“Yes, RJ. Harvey fifth round every single time, auto lock on pick every single time. I'll take him in the fourth.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
fifth round
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
-200
player:
RJ Harvey
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
cost round:
5
had to beat:
RB20
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB22
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the cost the source quoted — fifth round
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls De'Von Achane Miami DolphinsAug 10, 2025
De'Von Achane to outplay his draft cost (the beginning of the second)
“He's my twelfth overall player. I want to stay ahead of consensus on a Chan. I think he's worth a first round pick”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
the beginning of the second
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
De'Von Achane
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB9
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB7
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Ashton Jeanty Las Vegas RaidersAug 10, 2025
Ashton Jeanty to outplay his draft cost (eleventh overall)
“If you're looking at ADP on fantasypros dot com right now, he's eleventh overall... sometimes you can get him in round two or at the back end of round one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
eleventh overall
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
200
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB15
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Kenneth Walker III Seattle SeahawksAug 10, 2025
Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost (the fourth round at RB two price tags)
“When you can get a guy that was an RB one last year in the fourth round at RB two price tags, you do it all day”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
the fourth round at RB two price tags
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
-200
player:
Kenneth Walker III
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
cost round:
4
had to beat:
RB13
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB21
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the cost the source quoted — the fourth round at RB two price tags
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Romeo Doubs Green Bay PackersAug 10, 2025
Romeo Doubs to outplay his draft cost (round thirteen)
“it's Romeo Dobbs... If you look at just his separation metrics on a per route basis, this guy screams like big breakout season coming.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round thirteen
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Romeo Doubs
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR57
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR34
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Tetairoa McMillan Carolina PanthersAug 10, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (round six)
“this is a guy you could draft as your wide receiver three for your teams... I think he is going to be a locked in wide receiver two... at this spot in a draft. That is free money.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
round six
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
200
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR36
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR13
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Tetairoa McMillan Carolina PanthersAug 10, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to record 10 receiving tds
“They repeat that this year with Tedroe may Millen at the top. He's spiking ten plus touchdowns.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 0+80 skill
How this was scored
naive:
3.4
skill:
80
what happened:
7
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
accuracy:
40
baseline:
0
predicted:
10
statistic:
receiving_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
3.4
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Ashton Jeanty Las Vegas RaidersAug 10, 2025
Ashton Jeanty to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points
“Genty has the receiving upside and the volume upside to be a top three back in his rookie season.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 25-50 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-50
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
25
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
no prior season — the startable tier at RB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
24
actual finish:
15
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
3
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Ashton Jeanty Las Vegas RaidersAug 10, 2025
Ashton Jeanty to be 1st on the depth chart
“He's going to be their bellcal running back.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
LV
skill:
16.67
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Ashton Jeanty Las Vegas RaidersAug 10, 2025
Ashton Jeanty to record 80 receptions
“he could be a guy that catches eighty balls this year and nobody should be surprised”
Miss · 38Scored 37.5a naive guess scored 0+75 skill
How this was scored
naive:
19.97
skill:
75
what happened:
55
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
accuracy:
37.5
baseline:
0
predicted:
80
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
no prior season
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
19.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Jalen Hurts Philadelphia EaglesAug 10, 2025
Jalen Hurts to record 10 rushing tds
“the rushing touchdowns are going anywhere Toush push or not, doesn't matter. He's going to run for ten plus.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 88.54-57.09 skill
How this was scored
naive:
8.49
skill:
-57.09
what happened:
8
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2025
accuracy:
60
baseline:
88.54
predicted:
10
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
14
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Drake London Atlanta FalconsAug 10, 2025
Drake London to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
“London could be the wide receiver one overall this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 8.33-16.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-16.67
player:
Drake London
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
8.33
position:
WR
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
6
actual finish:
17
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes J.J. McCarthy Minnesota VikingsAug 10, 2025
J.J. McCarthy to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“a guy that I think is gonna be a locked in QB one”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
no prior season — the startable tier at QB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
12
actual finish:
32
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Jayden Higgins Houston TexansAug 10, 2025
Jayden Higgins to be 2nd on the depth chart
“he's going to be the starter in two wide receiver sets opposite Nico Collins”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
HOU
skill:
0
player:
Jayden Higgins
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes Dak Prescott Dallas CowboysAug 10, 2025
Dak Prescott to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
“he legitimately could revisit and put up top five numbers this year”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 0+183.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
183.33
player:
Dak Prescott
season:
2025
zero at:
12
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
32
actual finish:
6
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
5
Think this is wrong?
Sleeper Calls Jarquez Hunter Los Angeles RamsAug 10, 2025
Jarquez Hunter to outplay his draft cost (Round fifteen)
“I'm going with Jarquest Hunter... Hunter is the guy that is built different than Kyrien Williams and Blake korm.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
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