Marcus Mosher· Oct 8, 2024
Mosher's Week 6 power rankings place the undefeated Chiefs first and the Patriots last, and along the way he calls the Commanders clear-cut NFC East favorites, tabs the Lions and Buccaneers as playoff-caliber teams, and predicts the Bears will make the playoffs.
“Chicago might be the worst team in the NFC North, but this should be a playoff team this year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Oct 9, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
6 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 64.8 out of 100, against 61.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersWashington CommandersOct 8, 2024
Washington Commanders to win the division
“Through five games, the Commanders have to be considered the clear-cut favorites in the NFC East.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- won the division:
- no
- Depth Chart CallsWill LevisTennessee TitansOct 8, 2024
Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart
“coach Brian Callahan is adamant that Will Levis will start when he is 100 percent healthy”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Will Levis
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Playoff PicksChicago BearsOct 8, 2024
Chicago Bears to make the playoffs
“Chicago might be the worst team in the NFC North, but this should be a playoff team this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-172 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- skill:
- -172
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Power RankingsOct 8, 2024
“Here is our full set of rankings coming out of the fifth week of action: NFL Week 6 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
Hit · 89Scored 89a naive guess scored 67.38+37.2 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 37.2
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 89
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Playoff PicksMinnesota VikingsOct 8, 2024
Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs
“The Vikings are absolutely a legit playoff contender”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+172 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIN
- skill:
- 172
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 8, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“they look like a sure-fire playoff team this season”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 13
What others said about the same people
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice touts Kyler Murray as a value QB who will start Week 1 for Minnesota, Tyler Shough as the Saints' undisputed starter, and Juwan Johnson and Terrance Ferguson as late-round tight end targets.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to be Minnesota's Week 1 starter and calls him one of the better quarterback values in 2026 drafts; he also views Jordan Love as a top-10 real-life quarterback but only a QB2 in fantasy.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Kyler MurrayHit · 100Fitzmaurice expects Kyler Murray to open the season as Minnesota's starting quarterback and to be one of the better quarterback values in 2026 fantasy drafts, and he likewise likes Tyler Shough as New Orleans' entrenched starter with an easy schedule.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.