Colin Cowherd · Mar 14, 2025

Cowherd laid out his full AFC predictions: division orders for all four divisions, division winners (Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chargers), wild cards (Patriots, Bengals, Chiefs), plus win-total calls on the AFC West and expectations for the Patriots to double their win total. He also predicted the Chiefs decline and named the Patriots and Titans as surprise teams.

“So my division winners, I'm gonna do it like last year, with one exception, Bill's Ravens, Texans, Chargers wild card teams are the Patriots, Bengals, and Chiefs.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

22 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Playoff Picks New England PatriotsMar 14, 2025
“wild card teams are the Patriots, Bengals, and Chiefs”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NE
skill:
200
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Cincinnati BengalsMar 14, 2025
“wild card teams are the Patriots, Bengals, and Chiefs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
skill:
-200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
naive said:
false
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Kansas City ChiefsMar 14, 2025
“Kansas City's the wild card team”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Buffalo BillsMar 14, 2025
“I have the Bills, Ravens, Texans Chargers, and then the Patriots, Bengals che Thiefs”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Baltimore RavensMar 14, 2025
“I have the Bills, Ravens, Texans Chargers, and then the Patriots, Bengals che Thiefs”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
false
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Houston TexansMar 14, 2025
“I have the Bills, Ravens, Texans Chargers, and then the Patriots, Bengals che Thiefs”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
HOU
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Los Angeles ChargersMar 14, 2025
“I have the Bills, Ravens, Texans Chargers, and then the Patriots, Bengals che Thiefs”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Power RankingsMar 14, 2025
“I think this is an easy one. Bill's Patriots, Dolphins, Jets”
Scored 90a naive guess scored 40+100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
90
baseline:
40
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
4
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Power Rankings Cleveland BrownsMar 14, 2025
“AFC North, Great Division. I'm gonna go Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Brown”
Scored 25a naive guess scored 75-100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-100
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
25
baseline:
75
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
3
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Power RankingsMar 14, 2025
“I'm gonna take the Texans, Titans, Colts, and Jags”
Scored 30a naive guess scored 70-80 skill
How this was scored
skill:
-80
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
30
baseline:
70
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
4
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Power RankingsMar 14, 2025
“I'm gonna go Chargers win the AFC West. Kansas City's the wild card team, Broncos third, Raiders fourth”
Scored 70a naive guess scored 60+20 skill
How this was scored
skill:
20
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
70
baseline:
60
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
4
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals New England PatriotsMar 14, 2025
“I think they will double their win total, no question.”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
NE
naive:
6.25
skill:
0
what happened:
14
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
predicted:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Los Angeles ChargersMar 14, 2025
“I think the Chargers probably win twelve.”
Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
naive:
9.75
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
75
predicted:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Kansas City ChiefsMar 14, 2025
“I think they'll win ten or eleven games.”
Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.75
skill:
40
what happened:
6
season:
2025
zero at:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
0
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Drake Maye New England PatriotsMar 14, 2025
“I think they have the second most talented quarterback in the division. I don't think it's particularly close in Drake May.”
Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NE
skill:
-16.67
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls J.J. McCarthy Minnesota VikingsMar 14, 2025
“If he goes to Minnesota, my guest says he's a backup. By like October, they're gonna start JJ McCarthy.”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
MIN
skill:
16.67
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team Calls Tennessee TitansMar 14, 2025
“But J. Mack likes the Titans as a surprise team. I do too, potentially as a playoff team.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Los Angeles ChargersMar 14, 2025
“I'm gonna go Chargers win the AFC West”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Houston TexansMar 14, 2025
“I'm gonna take the Texans, Titans, Colts, and Jags”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team Calls New England PatriotsMar 14, 2025
“Patriots one of my surprise teams in the league... I think they will double their win total, no question.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Baltimore RavensMar 14, 2025
“AFC North, Great Division. I'm gonna go Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Brown”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Division Winners Buffalo BillsMar 14, 2025
“If Josh Allen is in his prime like Brady was, he will win this division going away... Bill's Patriots, Dolphins, Jets”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?