Rich Eisen· Oct 6, 2025
Rich Eisen reaffirmed his pick of the Lions to win the NFC while insisting the Eagles remain the team to beat, predicted the Colts beat the Cardinals on a last-second field goal, said the Chargers will not miss the playoffs, and expects Jake Browning to keep starting in Cincinnati and JJ McCarthy to return as Minnesota's starter. He also praised Jonathan Taylor as the best running back and OPOY-caliber, called Emeka Abuka the offensive rookie of the year, agreed Kyle Shanahan is the coach of the year front-runner, and said the Jets will pick in the top five.
“The lines, I chose to win the NFC.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 2 award picks, 2 depth chart calls, 1 coach award pick, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick, 1 playoff pick, 1 positional finishe and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 56.7 out of 100, against 56.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsDetroit LionsOct 6, 2025
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
“The lines, I chose to win the NFC. That was great right now... And I kinda feel real feel really good about that.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersOct 6, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“They're not gonna miss the playoffs... I'm not going to sit here and saying the Charging is back and the bolts from this playoffs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 14
J.J. McCarthy to be 1st on the depth chart
“And we'll see how JJ McCarthy looks when he comes back from this bye week. That's gonna be McCarthy's first start, we think... They've gotta get started with JJ McCarthy.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+14.83 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- MIN
- skill:
- 14.83
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Award PicksEmeka EgbukaTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 6, 2025
Emeka Egbuka to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“And Emeka Abuka ... Appears to be the offensive rookie of the year unless somebody goes nuts and he somehow falls off the planet.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Emeka Egbuka
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Jake Browning to be 1st on the depth chart
“So, you know, Browning's gonna get that start.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-14.83 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- -14.83
- player:
- Jake Browning
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew York JetsOct 6, 2025
New York Jets to pick “top five” (picks 1–5)
“Well, the Jets are definitely gonna pick at the top five next April.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.7+14.77 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 7 the year before
- skill:
- 14.77
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.7
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- top five (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 14
Jonathan Taylor to finish top 1 at his position, by rushing yards
“Jonathan Taylor looks like offensive player of the year, best running back in the league.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-14.83 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -14.83
- player:
- Jonathan Taylor
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- rushing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Coach Award PicksOct 6, 2025
Kyle Shanahan to win Coach of the Year
“Kyle Shanahan is coach of the year front runner right now. Oh, I agree with you right there.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Kyle Shanahan
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Mike Vrabel
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Award PicksJonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsOct 6, 2025
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year
“Jonathan Taylor looks like offensive player of the year, best running back in the league.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jonathan Taylor
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- Game Outcome PicksIndianapolis ColtsOct 6, 2025
Indianapolis Colts to beat Arizona Cardinals
“And the Indianapolis Colts next have the Arizona Cardinals, which means the Colts will win, on a field goal with no time left.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
What others said about the same people
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 0In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Pat FitzmauriceScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 36Fitzmaurice gave rest-of-season positional rankings for several Chiefs and other skill players, including Mahomes as his QB10, Kenneth Walker as RB4 behind Gibbs, Bijan and McCaffrey, Kelce at TE8 and Worthy down at WR50, and he picked Tampa Bay to beat Minnesota 21-20.
- Derek BrownScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersClose · 40Brown laid out aggressive rest-of-season positional rankings — Mahomes QB8, Kenneth Walker RB3, Kelce up to TE7, Rashee Rice all the way down at WR31 and Worthy at WR42 — called Drake London a WR1 with Penix back, and picked Tampa Bay 21-18 over Minnesota while declaring Zay Flowers will not play in Brazil.
- Bryan DeArdoScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 50He picks the Bengals to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a low-scoring, defensive game, arguing Pittsburgh's struggling offense can't break through against Cincinnati's strong defense.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Miss · 0In a Week 1 recap with no named byline, CBS Sports suggested Michael Penix Jr. would take over as Atlanta's Week 2 starter if healthy, called Ashton Jeanty's sophomore breakout imminent, and warned readers not to overlook San Francisco as NFC West winners.