Rich Eisen· Dec 8, 2025
Eisen pushed back on several takes: he doubts the Chiefs make the playoffs this year, agrees the Bills as a 5 seed can win a road playoff game, thinks New England wins the AFC East, expects Carolina to sweep Tampa Bay and win the NFC South, says Lamar Jackson is not a top-10 quarterback this year, sees the Ravens still able to win the AFC North at 8-9, and names Christian McCaffrey the Offensive Player of the Year front-runner.
“I wouldn't be shocked if they swept Tampa to to bring this home.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 2 division winners, 1 award pick, 1 game outcome pick and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensDec 8, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“So the Ravens still have a shot at the division, a shot at the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersDec 8, 2025
Carolina Panthers to beat Tampa
“I wouldn't be shocked if they swept Tampa to to bring this home.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CAR
- score:
- 20-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Division WinnersNew England PatriotsDec 8, 2025
New England Patriots to win the division
“I think you're winning the AFC East. It would be a massive collapse that I don't think New England has has in front of them”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- yes
Lamar Jackson to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“Even I don't even think you could sit here and say he's a top 10 quarterback this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 6
- actual finish:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- predicted finish:
- not a top 10 quarterback this year (NOT ranks 1–10)
- Award PicksChristian McCaffreyDec 8, 2025
Christian McCaffrey to win Offensive Player of the Year
“And might be your front runner for offensive player of the year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
What others said about the same people
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 100On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0In the winners-only chips segment Parkins backed the Patriots over the Jaguars, the Bengals over the Steelers and the Ravens over the Cowboys in Brazil. He also said New England has a real shot at a top-10 defense and that Kayshon/Romeo Dobbs will be the Patriots' number one target.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Dajani gave final-score predictions for eight Week 3 games, picking the Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Buccaneers (upset), Ravens, Broncos (upset) and Eagles to win.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Cynthia FrelundDivision Winners · Houston TexansMiss · 0Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; she also sees the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.
- Chris BrockmanDivision Winners · Chicago BearsHit · 100Brockman called the Broncos-Packers game the best of the day, said Denver looks poised to lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed and reach the AFC Championship Game, predicted the Bears win the NFC North and the Eagles win their division (though he thinks they lose to a five seed from the NFC West), and said Philip Rivers will be in the NFL in 2026.
- Nick ShookDivision Winners · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 0Shook picks the Rams to win the Super Bowl and to beat the Lions, agrees the Buccaneers still hold the edge in the NFC South, and drops Patrick Mahomes to 12th in his QB Index behind Brock Purdy.