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Kevin Wildes· Feb 6, 2026

Wildes picked the Patriots to upset the Seahawks in the Super Bowl by a score of 28-16, arguing New England's defense is better than Seattle's and that the game is priced wrong.

“My I'm going twenty eight, sixteen Patriots over Seahawks.”

said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 45.2 out of 100, against 8.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsFeb 6, 2026

    New England Patriots 28 — Seahawks 16

    “My I'm going twenty eight, sixteen Patriots over Seahawks.”

    Close · 40Scored 40.48a naive guess scored 16.73+23.74 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    29-13
    skill:
    23.74
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    16.73
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    16
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    12

    Think this is wrong?

  • Super Bowl PicksNew England PatriotsFeb 6, 2026

    New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl

    “I'm I'm gonna go for the Patriots. ... So I agree with your friend that it's price priced wrong, and I am still confident.”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    50
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these

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