Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview 2026: 14 pundits are on Josh Downs, and the last graded Downs sleeper call scored a zero

The Colts have gone 8-9, 8-9, 9-8 in the last three seasons and have not made the playoffs since 2020. For fantasy purposes, though, this is a busy roster: 84 graded and pending takes in our database attach to their quarterbacks, 73 to their receivers, 28 to the running backs, 25 to the tight ends.

Here is what the field is saying about them this August and how well that kind of call has held up when we graded it.

Wide receiver: the field has piled onto Josh Downs

Since March 1, our database holds 30 sleeper calls on Colts players. Nearly half are one man.

Nathan Jahnke has Downs at least 20 spots higher than consensus ADP (ADP 11.03) and elsewhere projects a top-36 finish on a bump in snaps and targets. Andrew Erickson lists him at WR42, overall 97, ECR vs. ADP +20, and back in March said "much better than wide receiver fifty seven when it comes to his talent level." Tom Strachan called him "one of the easiest buyers of the off season" once Michael Pittman left. Jim Moorman, Kyle Zeigler, Wolf Trelles-Heard, Mike Fanelli, Gordon McGuinness at PFF, an unsigned FantasyPros staff piece, and five of 13 CBS Sports voters on their All-Breakout team all say a version of the same thing: Pittman is gone, the targets are there, the price is round nine or later.

Two people have taken the other side, both after Indianapolis signed Keenan Allen. Brandon Carney: "this tells me that Josh Downs is just not happening, just ever". Walt called the Allen signing "a major blow" and, in the same camp report, told readers not to draft Allen either: "He is 34 years old and looked very washed up last year."

Worth knowing before you follow the crowd: the one Downs sleeper call we have graded, Mason Dodd's in August 2025, scored 0. Downs had to beat WR38 and finished WR50.

Alec Pierce is where the disagreement sits — five sleeper calls against three bust calls. Joe Pisapia in May: "wide receiver three, I'm buying... the current ECR... It's thirty two. That's about perfect for me." Richard Janvrin and Adam Murfet went further, Murfet calling him a possible top-15 receiver at a WR27 price. Against that, Derek Brown is out: "With the addition of Keenan Allen and Pierce's continued health struggles, I'm avoiding him in drafts this year." Carney would not take him "under almost any circumstances at ADP", and Walt cites the foot injury.

The last time a pundit faded Colts receivers on the record, it went badly. Marcas Grant in December 2025 wanted "no parts of any Colts outside of say Jonathan Taylor". Pierce finished WR16 against a WR35 bar; Pittman finished WR26 against WR46. Both calls graded 0, with skill deltas of -122.

Tight end: the only Colts group with a clean graded record

Tyler Warren draws the least controversy and has the best receipts. Three separate sleeper calls on him from August 2025 — Chris Welsh, Pisapia, Pat Fitzmaurice — each graded 100 with a +200 skill delta: cost was TE11, he had to beat TE12, he finished TE7. Kyle Brandt's in-season claim that Warren was already the league's best tight end scored 66.67 (predicted 1st, finished 5th in receiving yards).

For 2026 the field expects more. Derek Brown: "Warren is a top-five tight end this season who could sniff top-three status", and separately, "Tyler Warren is gonna absolutely crush dude. He is going to be a massive ADP winner." Scott Bogman named him his must-draft in the tier. Rob Rang thinks he is "a legitimate contender to lead all tight ends in receptions in 2026". No bust calls on Warren in our data.

Running back: one player, and Strachan arguing with himself

The Colts' running back punditry is Jonathan Taylor and nothing else — every one of the 28 RB takes on this roster is about him.

Strachan has him on both lists depending on the slot. At 1.03, 1.04 and 1.05 he fades Taylor — "do you deserve to be drafted with the third overall pick when your quarterback is coming off said achilles injury and is also named Daniel Jones?" — and then at 1.08 he targets him, saying "there's a very real world where Taylor is a top-two back this season." That is an objection to the price, not to the talent.

The cautionary note is Mike Harmon's Week 18 fade of Taylor against Houston, which graded 0 with a -106 skill delta: Taylor needed only to miss RB8 to make the call right, and finished RB1.

Quarterback: seven "sleepers," three "to avoid”

Everybody is arguing about the same Achilles. Fanelli twice called Jones a value at QB25/QB26 ADP because "Jones should be drafted significantly higher... just based on last year's success," and elsewhere pegged top-six production. Josh Shepardson called him "the most intriguing, break-glass-in-an-emergency pick among players selected after pick 150." FantasyPros' projections have him QB20 against a QB24 consensus. Walt's own projection is 3,600 yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 picks, 170 rushing yards, 293 fantasy points.

On the other side, Fitzmaurice is avoiding him — "it's fair to wonder whether Jones will have anything close to his usual mobility" — Michael Moore lists the injury plus the receiver turnover, and Dan Beyer is blunt: "I would not draft Daniel Jones. I don't think anybody is considering it."

Anthony Richardson is a fantasy non-entity in this data, and the last person to price him aggressively paid for it: Bogman's QB6 call from August 2025 graded 0, with Richardson finishing 70th at the position. Kurt Warner's Week 1 claim that Jones might be the league's best-playing quarterback also graded 0 (predicted 1st in passing yards, finished 18th).

How much should you trust any of this?

Well…not at all. Here is the whole graded Colts fantasy ledger.

Seven graded fantasy takes on this franchise, total: four sleeper calls averaging 75 accuracy, three bust calls averaging 0. Add the 11 graded positional-finish calls on Colts players (47.7 average accuracy) and you still do not have a sample that supports a confident claim about anything. Every number in this section is a small-sample estimate, and the direction it points — Colts skill players beat the fades in 2025 — rests on three graded bust calls.

Site-wide, the position pattern is pretty clear:

Receiver sleepers, the category most of this preview lives in, land at 52.2 average accuracy across 134 graded calls — coin-flip territory. Bust calls on receivers do better (64.3 across 42). Tight end sleepers grade 60.9 on 23, which is the sturdiest thing you can say for the Warren consensus.

Lead time cuts against the timing, too. Sleeper calls made inside six weeks of resolution average 42 accuracy (26 graded) versus 55 for those made four to eight months out (211 graded) — the late-August rush is not the sharp end. Positional-finish calls are worse at every horizon, 32 to 38.

Individual records worth knowing, all with the caveat that no one here has an established sample:

Read that as: when Brown or Erickson tell you to avoid somebody, their bust records are the best thing on this page; when Fitzmaurice does, his is the worst. Walt and Jahnke, two of the loudest voices on this roster, each have only one graded take in our database. Full scoring detail is in the methodology.