Mason Dodd· Aug 10, 2025
Mason went round-by-round with fantasy draft targets, headlined by CeeDee Lamb as a potential overall WR1 at pick six, Devon Achane as a first-round talent falling to round two, Trey McBride outscoring every round-three receiver, and Treveon Henderson as the one player he must leave every draft with.
“I think Trey McBride outscores every wide receiver going in round three.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
18 checkable claims — 15 sleeper calls, 2 depth chart calls and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 25 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 18 have settled, averaging 48.6 out of 100, against 53.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
- Trey Benson
- Arizona Cardinals
- Tyler Warren
- Jalen Hurts
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Josh Downs
- Indianapolis Colts
- Ricky Pearsall
- Chase Brown
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Braelon Allen
- Trey McBride
- TreVeyon Henderson
- New England Patriots
- De'Von Achane
- Miami Dolphins
- J.K. Dobbins
- Denver Broncos
- Xavier Worthy
- Kansas City Chiefs
- CeeDee Lamb
- Dallas Cowboys
- Jerome Ford
- Cleveland Browns
- Miles Sanders
18 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsTrey BensonArizona CardinalsAug 10, 2025
Trey Benson to outplay his draft cost (round twelve)
“Yeah, Trey Benson. Think he's a premium hand cut back, great prospect coming out last year... hopefully he does have an expanded role.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round twelve
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Trey Benson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB66
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB79
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsTyler WarrenAug 10, 2025
Tyler Warren to outplay his draft cost (round eleven)
“Tyler Warren, great collusion, production, great draft capital, I end, great athleticism”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round eleven
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsJalen HurtsPhiladelphia EaglesAug 10, 2025
Jalen Hurts to outplay his draft cost (middle to possibly the end of the fourth round)
“you can consistently get Jalen Hurts in the middle to possibly the end of the fourth round in drafts... round four is a very reasonable price”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- middle to possibly the end of the fourth round
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jalen Hurts
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- cost round:
- 4
- had to beat:
- QB9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — middle to possibly the end of the fourth round
- Sleeper CallsJosh DownsIndianapolis ColtsAug 10, 2025
Josh Downs to outplay his draft cost (pick one forty eight on ESPN)
“he goes pick one forty eight on ESPN, which is crazy. Josh Downs... This is another young wide receiver that is flash talents, continuing to get better.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- pick one forty eight on ESPN
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Josh Downs
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR50
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsRicky PearsallAug 10, 2025
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (pick ninety one Yahoo one oh three sleeper and pick one hundred on ESPN)
“This leaves Ricky Pierce Hall is the only dude in this offense goes pick ninety one Yahoo one oh three sleeper and pick one hundred on ESPN.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- pick ninety one Yahoo one oh three sleeper and pick one hundred on ESPN
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR81
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR78
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsChase BrownCincinnati BengalsAug 10, 2025
Chase Brown to outplay his draft cost (round three)
“Hopefully he stays in round three... had to call out Chase Brown here... Zach Moss released, so the only competition is gonna be TODJ. Brooks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round three
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsBraelon AllenAug 10, 2025
Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (round fourteen)
“they're telling us that Braylen Allen's going to be involved in this offense... if anything were to cur to breesall it could be a league winner”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round fourteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Braelon Allen
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB51
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB94
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsTrey McBrideArizona CardinalsAug 10, 2025
Trey McBride to outplay his draft cost (round three)
“I think Trey McBride outscores every wide receiver going in round three.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round three
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Trey McBride
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
TreVeyon Henderson to outplay his draft cost (Round six)
“We're gonna go Trevion Henderson and you have an elite prospect profile. Perfect situation if it wasn't for Amadre being there, I think this would be a Round three pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- Round six
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- TreVeyon Henderson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB19
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsDe'Von AchaneMiami DolphinsAug 10, 2025
De'Von Achane to outplay his draft cost (pick sixteen)
“So I think it's a round two pick that should be a round one pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- pick sixteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- De'Von Achane
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsJ.K. DobbinsDenver BroncosAug 10, 2025
J.K. Dobbins to outplay his draft cost (round ten)
“I'm going to go JK. Dobbins. I think you have the premium handcuff appeal if R. J. Harvey were to get injured... I think Dobbins crushes”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round ten
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- J.K. Dobbins
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB21
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB37
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsXavier WorthyKansas City ChiefsAug 10, 2025
Xavier Worthy to outplay his draft cost (round five)
“I'm going to take Xavier Worthy... So I'm completely fine drafting Zavier Worthy is like my wide receiver three.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- round five
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsCeeDee LambDallas CowboysAug 10, 2025
CeeDee Lamb to outplay his draft cost (pick six)
“I think Ceedee Lamb's in a really good spot to just potentially be the wide receiver one overall that you can get a pick six.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- pick six
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- CeeDee Lamb
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR23
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsJerome FordCleveland BrownsAug 10, 2025
Jerome Ford to outplay his draft cost (Round thirteen)
“Love Jerome Ford. He could be a starting running back week one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- Round thirteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Jerome Ford
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB37
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB86
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsMiles SandersDallas CowboysAug 10, 2025
Miles Sanders to outplay his draft cost (Round fifteen)
“It's gonna be Miles Sanders not trending well... I would expect that you actually have to spend a reasonable draft on Blue where Miles Sanders could be your last pick.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- Round fifteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Miles Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB59
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB85
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Depth Chart CallsJerome FordCleveland BrownsAug 10, 2025
Jerome Ford to be 1st on the depth chart
“He could be a starting running back week one.”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 75+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jerome Ford
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsTyler WarrenAug 10, 2025
Tyler Warren to be 1st on the depth chart
“and he's gonna play almost eighty percent of the snaps Week one”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- TE
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesCeeDee LambDallas CowboysAug 10, 2025
CeeDee Lamb to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
“potentially be the wide receiver one overall that you can get a pick six”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- CeeDee Lamb
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 9
- actual finish:
- 22
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
What others said about the same people
- Mike MoraitisTrade and Signing Calls · DaRon BlandMiss · 0Moraitis names five Cowboys he expects to be playing their final season opener in Dallas in 2026: George Pickens (likely tag-and-trade or departure), Malik Hooker, Luke Schoonmaker, DeMarvion Overshown and DaRon Bland.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100An unsigned CBS Sports preseason review grading all 32 teams, which along the way stakes out a number of depth-chart calls for Week 1 and beyond — including Deshaun Watson opening as Cleveland's starter, Fernando Mendoza taking over as Las Vegas' QB1 by season's end, and Minnesota's Murray-Wentz-McCarthy quarterback order.
- Ryan WilsonDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece states Deshaun Watson has won Cleveland's starting quarterback job for Week 1 with Shedeur Sanders next in line, while arguing Watson will not play like even an average NFL quarterback and that none of the Browns' current young passers should stop them from drafting a first-round quarterback next April.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · Keenan AllenHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano argues the Browns do not have a franchise quarterback and that it's unlikely Watson or Sanders is their long-term answer.
- John BreechDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The unsigned newsletter author says Deshaun Watson will start Week 1 at Jacksonville, notes he voted for Jaxson Dart as his breakout QB rather than Caleb Williams, and says newly signed Daniel Carlson is the favorite to win the Saints' kicking job.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · Travis HunterHit · 100Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Tom StrachanSleeper Calls · Jalen CokerHit · 100Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Chris Rodriguez Jr.Hit · 100Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · Tetairoa McMillanHit · 100Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Tetairoa McMillanHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Tetairoa McMillanHit · 100Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than his QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season.