Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 Outlook: Everyone Is Talking About the Quarterbacks and Almost Nobody About the Rest

The Steelers have won ten games in each of the last three seasons and made the playoffs in all three. They enter 2026 with Mike McCarthy as head coach, Omar Khan as general manager, Aaron Rodgers back under center and a third-round rookie quarterback behind him. That last detail is doing most of the work in the discourse.

Our database holds 132 Steelers takes tied to a quarterback and exactly zero tied to a kicker, punter or long snapper. That imbalance shapes this preview: the sections below are as long as the evidence justifies, and where a unit has drawn nothing checkable, we say so in a sentence and move on.

Quarterbacks

There is no genuine competition for the starting job in anyone's telling. Eric Edholm put it in three words on August 12: "Rodgers is the starter." Albert Breer, after his 19th trip to Steelers camp, had Allar sticking as the third-stringer. An unsigned CBS Sports piece laid out the pecking order plainly — "Start: Aaron Rodgers," with Mason Rudolph "more likely than not" the No. 2 and rookie Drew Allar at No. 3 — and expected all four quarterbacks to survive cuts.

The backup order was the only real argument, and it settled early. Jack Markowski wrote on August 21 that Rudolph "has grabbed ahold of the backup job," and Gerry Dulac said flatly, "I can't imagine them not keeping Mason Rudolph." Noah Strackbein predicted all four passers stay; several writers expected Will Howard to be the one squeezed.

The live take is about how long Rodgers lasts. Nick Wright on September 3: "I would be surprised if, during that stretch that Drew Allar doesn't start a game or two … I do not think Aaron Rodgers will be the starting quarterback all year." Chris Brockman went further back in April — "Drew Allard is gonna start the most games at quarterback for the Steelers next year" — while Rich Eisen said Rodgers "is gonna start all 17 games unless he gets hurt." Those three cannot all be right. None is graded yet.

Worth knowing before you weigh them: depth-chart calls are the easiest thing on this site to get right and the hardest to get *credit* for. Wright's depth-chart record is 89.35 accuracy across 11 graded calls but a MissedTakes Score of −1.23 — right, and no better than the naive answer. Gregg Rosenthal sits at 92.81 accuracy and −2.22 on 26 depth-chart calls. Steelers depth-chart takes as a group have graded at 95.8 accuracy with a skill delta of −4.86 across the ten that have settled.

Wide receivers

The second-most-discussed room: 83 takes, 15 of them graded, averaging 39.7 accuracy — the lowest-scoring of Pittsburgh's well-covered position groups.

The top two are agreed on. Simon Hunter, on September 1, called DK Metcalf a player he loves — "It's another year with him and Rodgers" — and said "there's a lot of other guys to feed where DK, he's going to be the number one," with Michael Pittman Jr. as "the second receiver now in the Pittsburgh." Andrew Erickson disagrees on Metcalf specifically, listing him among his wide receiver busts while naming Pittman a sleeper. Josh Shepardson thinks "Pittman could be Pittsburgh's top-passing game weapon, especially if DK Metcalf's mystery injury impacts his performance."

Behind them, the No. 3 job went to the incumbent. Pat Fitzmaurice: "Roman Wilson, the Steelers' third-round pick in 2024, is going to start the regular season as Pittsburgh's third receiver, ahead of rookie second-round pick Germie Bernard." Nathan Jahnke read the same signal from Week 3 preseason usage. Breer had Bernard "the fourth guy behind those three if the season started today." Fitzmaurice's fantasy-bust calls, for the record, are his worst category: 22.86 accuracy and a −108.57 score across 13 graded.

Running backs

Forty-five takes, only eight graded, and those eight average 42.8 accuracy with a −20.63 skill delta — the field has been worse than a naive guess here.

The split is real. Bryan DeArdo, from camp, called Rico Dowdle "the front-runner to be Pittsburgh's RB1." Mike Fanelli: "While he will split the work with Jaylen Warren in Pittsburgh, Dowdle should be the lead guy on the ground." Jim Moorman has Dowdle on early downs and Warren catching passes. Fitzmaurice is the loudest dissent: "My money is on Warren as Pittsburgh's primary running back this year, and it's possible Dowdle has a smaller role than some expect."

Kaleb Johnson, a 2025 third-round pick, drew the harshest calls — Jahnke twice flagged him as "a likely cut." Seventh-round fullback Eli Heidenreich split the room: Jahnke said it was "highly unlikely" he made the roster; Tyler Sullivan wrote that he "impressed enough to earn the RB3 role behind Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle."

Tight ends

Nineteen takes about Pittsburgh tight ends, none of them graded — the position does not even appear in the team's graded-by-position table. What exists is fantasy framing: Jahnke twice arguing it's "unlikely" Pat Freiermuth "has a significant bounce-back this season," FantasyPros projecting him at TE21 against a TE27 consensus, and Gordon McGuinness suggesting 2026 is the year Darnell Washington "gets more national attention as one of the better players at the position." Jahnke also expects Washington to play more snaps while Freiermuth runs more routes. Treat all of it as unsettled.

Offensive line

Seventeen tackle takes, nine graded at 84.7 accuracy — but almost all of that is mock-draft scoring, not opinion about this line. On the line itself, Breer is the most specific: "The left side of the offensive line is set, with Troy Fautanu, Mason McCormick and Zach Frazier comprising a smart, tough and physical trio," with Spencer Anderson at right guard as "at least a stopgap until rookie Gennings Dunker, who's starting to ascend, is ready."

Right tackle is the open question, and pundits have contradicted each other. Rosenthal in July: Max Iheanachor is "probably gonna start at left tackle for the Steelers." Brent Sobleski has Fautanu moving to left tackle with Iheanachor taking his old spot. After Broderick Jones was dealt to Dallas, Sullivan projected Iheanachor "to take over for Jones at right tackle opposite 2024 first-round left tackle Troy Fautanu." Breer is more cautious: "there's an expectation that he'll be ready to start at some point this year, but he has to prove he can stay on the field first." Interior line punditry is two graded takes total. That is not a sample.

Defensive line

Thin. Seven interior-line takes, three graded at 67.0 accuracy; three defensive end takes, two graded. The only forward-looking calls are breakout picks on Derrick Harmon — Breer noted his talent and coachability with "a breakout second season on the table," and Ralph Vacchiano says "he'll have an increasing impact and show everyone why he's being groomed as Heyward's successor." Markowski expects Keeanu Benton to be used "primarily as an end" behind Cameron Heyward.

Edge is barely covered as prediction: ten OLB takes, five graded at 20.0 accuracy, and most of the recent ones are Hall of Fame projections for T.J. Watt rather than 2026 forecasts. Vacchiano expects Watt to "stay in the top 10 for another season or two."

Secondary

Seventeen cornerback takes, five graded at 44.9 accuracy; four safety takes, two graded. Nearly all the 2026 volume is about one contract. Markowski on September 1: "it sure looks and feels like Porter Jr.'s hold-in will continue." Danny Parkins: "my gut tells me this goes into next season, and the Steelers just hang the franchise tag over his head." Geoff Schwartz disagrees on timing — "He'll be back for week one." DeArdo, having floated trade scenarios, landed on Porter most likely staying "in Pittsburgh through 2026."

On the field, Breer has Jalen Ramsey at the star/nickel spot, and Strackbein expects Asante Samuel Jr. to be "the first depth player the team will look at coming off the bench," with third-round rookie Daylen Everette rounding out the room. Jacob Punturi went furthest: "Porter Jr. is a top five cornerback in the entire league."

Special teams

Zero takes about a Steelers kicker, punter or long snapper — graded or otherwise. The only special-teams-adjacent punditry concerns fourth-round rookie returner Kaden Wetjen, whose roster spot Punturi called "seemingly secured due to his return skills, but he's failed to show that his offensive game translates to the NFL." Markowski expected him to survive cuts. That is the entire file.

The rookie class

Ground truth first. Pittsburgh's 2026 haul: OT Max Iheanachor (No. 21), WR Germie Bernard (47), QB Drew Allar (76), CB Daylen Everette (85), OT Gennings Dunker (96), WR Kaden Wetjen (121), TE Riley Nowakowski (169), DL Gabriel Rubio (210), S Robert Spears-Jennings (224), FB Eli Heidenreich (230).

The field read pick 21 well as a *position* and poorly as a *name*. Nine graded mock calls put a player in that slot; eight of them were offensive tackles, and they averaged 83.8 accuracy. Only KC Laboratory got the name — "Max Iannacher goes pick 21 to the Steelers" — for a clean 100. David Harrison (84.09) and Daniel Jeremiah (84.09) both had Blake Miller; Wright and Nick Shook had Monroe Freeling (91.7 each); Rosenthal had Spencer Fano (59.46); Matt Miller had Kadyn Proctor (67.71); Fitzmaurice took safety Dillon Thieneman (84.09).

Allar is the more interesting case, because he was a consensus top-of-the-draft quarterback a year earlier and went 76th. Brady Quinn ("he'll be the top pick") and Eisen ("could be the first overall pick") both graded 3.88. Kyle Crabbs had him second overall: 4.05. The one person paid for skepticism was Aaron Torres, who said in March that "Drew aller will not be going top. Five" — 100. Jason Martin's call that Allar "looks like a career backup in the NFL" is not gradable yet.

Bernard drew a correct second-round projection from Ross Jackson (100). Erickson lists him among "Rookies to Avoid"; Ethen Hutton thinks he "could be in for a big rookie season." Spears-Jennings, Dunker, Everette and Wetjen have roster-spot chatter and nothing more; Nowakowski and Rubio have drawn nothing we hold.

The outlook

The 2026 win-total field is clustered and pessimistic relative to three straight ten-win years. Vacchiano: "Getting to 10 wins again could be quite the challenge for Pittsburgh. Eight seems like a more realistic goal." Joe Marino: "enjoy your eight or nine wins." Diante Lee: "I don't think the Steelers can be more than a ho-hum eight- or nine-win team with this version of Rodgers at the helm." Moe Moton and Veejay Huskey both wrote 9-8; Pat Gustavson said "another nine and eight year"; the SportsLine model, via Matt Severance, has 8.6 wins and a 40.4% playoff chance. Rosenthal is at the top of the range: "I think they'll find their way to get to nine or 10 wins."

Wright is the outlier in the other direction, three times over: "I projected them to go 6-11." Chris Broussard is with him — "This will be the first losing season for the Steelers since 2003." Parkins splits the difference: "I think Aaron Rodgers is going to go out with a whimper, they'll be an eight-win team."

Two caveats from the record. First, Wright's season-win-total accuracy is 43.63 with a −10.42 MissedTakes Score across 50 graded calls — his weakest high-volume category, alongside a 12.5 accuracy on 14 division-winner picks. Second, the field has already been wrong in this exact direction: the 11 graded 2025 win-total calls on Pittsburgh averaged 8.9 against an actual 10, and Brockman's 6-win call graded 20 accuracy and −130 skill.

Division and conference are near-empty. We hold three graded division-winner takes ever naming the Steelers and none for 2026 — Wright and Broussard both slot them third behind Baltimore and Cincinnati, Parkins third behind Cincinnati and Baltimore. There are no 2026 conference-champion or Super Bowl takes on Pittsburgh in the database at all, and no graded Steelers power-rankings entries.

Playoff punditry is where the honest caution belongs. Twenty-nine graded Steelers playoff calls sit at 100 accuracy — and an average skill delta of just 13.79, because picking Pittsburgh in has been the naive answer for years. As Kyle Brandt put it: "The Steelers are your free space in bingo." For 2026 we hold only two such calls so far: Joe Johnson ("We're gonna sneak in from the radar boom") and Robert Guerra, who has them third among AFC wild cards. If the field is right about eight or nine wins, the free space stops being free.