Marcus Mosher· Aug 5, 2024
Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2024 preseason, with the Chiefs first and the Patriots last. Along the way he predicts the Chiefs reach at least the AFC Championship Game, the Bills win double-digit games, the Steelers hover around 10 wins, the Broncos win about five games, the Buccaneers return to the postseason, and the Patriots earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.
“It's hard to envision the Chiefs not reaching the AFC Championship Game, at minimum, again this year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Aug 5, 2024) → · live page
9 checkable claims — 3 season win totals, 1 conference champion, 1 depth chart call, 1 playoff pick, 1 power ranking, 1 surprise team call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 74.9 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsAug 5, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“It's hard to envision the Chiefs not reaching the AFC Championship Game, at minimum, again this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Season Win TotalsDenver BroncosAug 5, 2024
Denver Broncos to finish with 5 wins
“it wouldn't be a surprise if they only win five or so games this year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 65-130 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- -130
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 65
- predicted:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersAug 5, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“they have a quality roster and should make it back to the postseason in 2024”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Team Draft Slot CallsNew England PatriotsAug 5, 2024
New England Patriots to pick at number 1
“The New England Patriots are the favorite to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, which makes sense.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 95.76-15.9 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 3 the year before
- skill:
- -15.9
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 95.76
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Drake Maye to be 1st on the depth chart
“are likely to start a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsPittsburgh SteelersAug 5, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“the improved offensive line should allow them to hover around 10 wins once again”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 85+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Power RankingsAug 5, 2024
“Today, we are ranking all 32 teams from 1 to 32 heading into the preseason.”
Close · 71Scored 71.04a naive guess scored 67.38+7.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 7.33
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 71.04
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsBuffalo BillsAug 5, 2024
Buffalo Bills to finish with 10 wins
“Expect the Bills to win double-digit games again this season and be a legit contender in the AFC.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 35+10 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsArizona CardinalsAug 5, 2024
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“the Arizona Cardinals will be a popular "sleeper" pick during the 2024 season”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris BrockmanTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100Brockman's season-preview overreactions: Fernando Mendoza becomes an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist; Dak Prescott wins MVP and the Cowboys win the Super Bowl; Jesse Minter's Ravens win the AFC North; C.J. Stroud leads Houston to the AFC's No. 1 seed; Jonathan Taylor approaches 2,000 rushing yards; Baker Mayfield wins the NFC South, goes 12-5 and reaches the NFC title game while landing a $60 million-per-year deal; and Aaron Rodgers throws 35-plus touchdowns as the Steelers go 11-6 and win the North.
- Jon GrudenTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The former Buccaneers head coach predicted that Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield are closer on a new contract than believed and that an extension will get done.
- Joel CorryTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldHit · 100The unsigned CBS Sports analysis lays out the contract it believes Tampa Bay will have to give Mayfield at minimum: a two-year extension averaging $50 million per year with $110 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause.
- Henry McKennaDepth Chart Calls · Carson BeckMiss · 0McKenna predicts Kyler Murray will win the Vikings' starting QB job over J.J. McCarthy, that Minnesota will make the playoffs if Murray cuts out the hero ball, that both QBs will play in 2026, and wonders whether rookie Carson Beck could unseat Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's Week 1 starter.
- Jason McIntyreTrade and Signing Calls · Baker MayfieldMiss · 0Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre argued the 49ers' window is closed amid a brutal injury list and record travel, floated a Bijan Robinson trade to the Bears, predicted the Lions can win the NFC North, doubted Atlanta is even a playoff team, said Baker Mayfield's Tampa run ends after this season, and delivered a top-10 quarterback ranking.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- JP AcostaSeason Win Totals · New York GiantsClose · 40Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.
- Rich EisenSeason Win Totals · New Orleans SaintsClose · 40Eisen called the 49ers-as-NFC-favorites take an overreaction, picked the Jaguars to beat the Titans and win their division, leaned Ravens over the Steelers in the Week 18 Sunday night game, expects the Bills to beat the Jets even without Josh Allen, sees the Chargers as the AFC's seventh seed, agreed Tyler Shough could win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a good Saints 2026, said Malik Willis will be a starter somewhere next season, and insisted Detroit goes into 2026 with Goff.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · New Orleans SaintsClose · 40Brockman floated the 49ers as the team to beat in the NFC after their Sunday night win, predicted James Cook would lead the league in rushing, and said Tyler Shough will win Rookie of the Year with the Saints finishing above .500 next season.
- Rich EisenSeason Win Totals · Chicago BearsHit · 80Rich Eisen gave his Week 15 top-10 power rankings, installing the Rams at No. 1 as the best team in football, adding the Jaguars and keeping the Bears despite their loss, while dropping the Cowboys and Eagles off the list. He also projected 10-win seasons for both Chicago and Jacksonville and said the Jaguars would handle the Jets at home.
- Chris BrockmanSeason Win Totals · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 60Brockman argued the Seahawks are the NFC's best team and will land the No. 1 seed, that Jacksonville will reach 11 wins and steal the AFC South from Indianapolis, that JJ McCarthy will lead the Vikings to the playoffs, and that Matthew Stafford will be an MVP finalist.
- Rich EisenSeason Win Totals · Carolina PanthersClose · 60Eisen picked the Colts as the AFC's top seed, named Jonathan Taylor a top-three MVP finisher, said this season puts Matthew Stafford in the Hall of Fame, kept the NFC North as Detroit's division, and had Tampa Bay as the NFC South playoff team while allowing Carolina could reach 10 wins.