Marcus Mosher · Aug 5, 2024

Mosher ranks all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2024 preseason, with the Chiefs first and the Patriots last. Along the way he predicts the Chiefs reach at least the AFC Championship Game, the Bills win double-digit games, the Steelers hover around 10 wins, the Broncos win about five games, the Buccaneers return to the postseason, and the Patriots earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.

“It's hard to envision the Chiefs not reaching the AFC Championship Game, at minimum, again this year.”

published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original →

9 checkable claims from this

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Playoff PicksAug 5, 2024
“they have a quality roster and should make it back to the postseason in 2024”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
naive said:
true
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made playoffs:
true
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsAug 5, 2024
“it wouldn't be a surprise if they only win five or so games this year”
Scored 0a naive guess scored 65-130 skill
How this was scored
team:
DEN
naive:
8.25
skill:
-130
what happened:
10
season:
2024
zero at:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
65
predicted:
5
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart CallsAug 5, 2024
“are likely to start a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NE
skill:
16.67
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
naive basis:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Power RankingsAug 5, 2024
“Today, we are ranking all 32 teams from 1 to 32 heading into the preseason.”
Scored 71.04a naive guess scored 67.38+7.33 skill
How this was scored
skill:
7.33
method:
spearman
season:
2024
accuracy:
71.04
baseline:
67.38
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
32
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsAug 5, 2024
“the improved offensive line should allow them to hover around 10 wins once again”
Scored 100a naive guess scored 85+30 skill
How this was scored
team:
PIT
naive:
9.25
skill:
30
what happened:
10
season:
2024
zero at:
5
accuracy:
100
baseline:
85
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Season Win TotalsAug 5, 2024
“Expect the Bills to win double-digit games again this season and be a legit contender in the AFC.”
Scored 40a naive guess scored 35+10 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
naive:
9.75
skill:
10
what happened:
13
season:
2024
zero at:
5
accuracy:
40
baseline:
35
predicted:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Conference ChampionsAug 5, 2024
“It's hard to envision the Chiefs not reaching the AFC Championship Game, at minimum, again this year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft PicksAug 5, 2024
“The New England Patriots are the favorite to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, which makes sense.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?
Surprise Team CallsAug 5, 2024
“the Arizona Cardinals will be a popular "sleeper" pick during the 2024 season”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the season it describes has finished.
Think this is wrong?